547
FNUS53 KAPX 161846
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Showers and Thunderstorms continue tonight...

.DISCUSSION...

A frontal passage will continue to push showers and
thunderstorms this evening into Thursday morning. Biggest hazards
tonight will be localized heavy rainfall and strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts. Showers begin to clear Thursday morning,
leaving precip-free and cooler weather behind with highs around 70
for most areas. Dew points lower to the 50s on Thursday, but RH
values remain well above critical thresholds.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 1.16 in.
Chance of Thunder...37 percent.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler...except 14 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 13 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (669).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (364).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms. Showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the north
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 1.40 in.
Chance of Thunder...48 percent.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (689).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (387).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the south in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-170830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (86).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.86 in.
Chance of Thunder...34 percent.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then mostly
                    sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (626).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (300).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-170830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms. Showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 4 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (78).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.37- 1.25 in.
Chance of Thunder...38 percent.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (573).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.12 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (301).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Haze until 2400.
                    Numerous showers until 2400. Scattered
                    thunderstorms. Showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the north around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.48- 1.43 in.
Chance of Thunder...55 percent.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (635).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (388).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SJC