667
FNUS53 KAPX 050620
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Elevated fire danger continues today...

.DISCUSSION...Another day of summer-like warmth, sub 40 percent
afternoon relative humidity values, and increasingly gusty southwest
winds (frequently gusting above critical levels) will result in
another round of elevated fire danger today. Rather deep afternoon
mixing heights will also support rather rapid fire growth. Much
needed rain chances return Monday during transition period to much
cooler weather by mid-week.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-052345-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1554).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 13 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (252).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...10 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-052345-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1537).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 15 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (589).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-052345-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1567).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (88).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (247).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.13 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-052345-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1622).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (342).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-052345-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
220 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1758).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (701).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB