Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
865
FNUS53 KAPX 240657
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
...Near-critical RHs today; increasing rain chances late...
.DISCUSSION...Lots of sunshine this morning with increasing high
clouds this afternoon. High temperatures expected to span the 70s
and low 80s -- warmest near and west of I-75. Decent mixing should
allow for RHs to fall to 30-35% across much of the interior with
some localized readings falling to near critical levels. Generally light
southerly winds today with sporadic gusts around 15-20 mph.
Afternoon inland penetrating lake breeze development likely on both
coasts. Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast this
evening and overnight. Few lingering showers possible early Saturday
morning with otherwise precipitation-free conditions expected for
the remainder of Saturday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-242015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 61-66 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (431).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south in the
afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 2400, then rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....51-56.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (85).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.22 in.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except around 60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 45-50 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (437).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the west in
the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-242015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 53-58 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (199).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.15 in.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 57-62 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 9 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (686).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the west
around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
$$
MIZ020-025>027-242015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 60-65 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (717).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (91).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.40 in.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) until 1200, then
sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 54-59 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (400).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
$$
MIZ031>033-242015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (908).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
likely until 2400, then rain showers and chance
of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (94).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.49 in.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) until 1200, then
sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler...except 16 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (440).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-242015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (634).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (75).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.24 in.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (728).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the
northwest around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
MJG