656
FNUS53 KAPX 052009
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Stronger winds continue as chances for rain move in...

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy south to southwest winds will continue tonight as a cold
front approaches from the northeast. Clouds and rain chances will
approach northern lower around mid day tomorrow. Embedded storms
will be possible over NE lower in the afternoon hours, possibly
producing gusty and erratic winds with the strongest storms.
Moderate to high chances for widespread wetting rains to fall
from Monday afternoon through Monday night. Winds will switch to
the northwest to north late Monday and gradually weaken Monday
night into Tuesday. A dry frontal passage will lead to breezy
north winds Tuesday afternoon.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-060845-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 19 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (77).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent), then mostly
cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers with slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (364).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.17 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (672).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060845-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (749).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.14 in .
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (83).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.33 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (729).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060845-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 8 degrees cooler near the
                    coast.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (376).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.26 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.16 in.
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (550).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-060845-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200. Chance of rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (495).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (58).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.18 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (608).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060845-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (892).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.37 in.
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 110 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (699).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

ELD