Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
372
FNUS53 KAPX 091923
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
...Occasional Scattered Rain Chances through Midweek...
.DISCUSSION... Stagnant weather pattern constituted by a
stationary front draped over downstate will continue to produce
rounds of widely scattered showers and thunder, heaviest south of
M-72, through midweek.
As far as tonight goes, anticipating mixing heights and
ventilation to quickly lower considering increasing cloud cover,
with RHs rising considerably through the evening. Low clouds and
drizzle may be present Monday morning, but anticipation is that
conditions turn sunnier with NW winds gusting up to 15-20mph at
times by afternoon, amid good mixing and ventilation. Dry weather
prevails following any morning drizzle. RHs will range from the
50s west of I-75 and 40s (perhaps lower 40s in Huron National
Forest) east of I-75.
Next rain chances favor northeast lower on Tuesday, and will be
quite scattered. More scattered rain and storm chances build
Wednesday, encompassing all of northern lower. Looking ahead, rain
chances look quite low to zero for several days after midweek.
Temperatures hover near to slightly below normal (mid-upper 70s
for most, near 80 closer to Saginaw Bay). Considering lessened
rainfall potential, drier conditions may turn problematic with
area vegetation.
Current vegetation is lush and tall considering the rainfall we
have seen to date. If vegetation die-off becomes widespread, fire
danger may increase considerably through the end of the month and
into September in the event more widespread appreciable rainfall
fails to manifest in the coming weeks.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-100830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
until 2400, then slight chance of showers.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.20 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (453).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 10 percent drier along the
coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 70-75 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (393).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-100830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers until 2400. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after
2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the west
around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.35 in.
Chance of Thunder...20 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (474).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the south around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-100830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.21 in.
Chance of Thunder...26 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 68-73 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (325).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 67-72 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (13).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (366).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-100830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.28 in.
Chance of Thunder...31 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 70-75 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (370).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (404).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west around
9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-100830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers until 2400. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after
2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.43 in.
Chance of Thunder...28 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (559).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (455).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
HAD