553
FNUS73 KAPX 071124
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for County Line Unit 15...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
724 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on October 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Expect wind shift from SW to W/NW this morning and remain W to NW thru
rest of the day, with potential front dropping in late that could shift
winds back to W, esp toward sunset. (Showers possible toward late
afternoon/evening but better chance will be near Mackinac Bridge.)
Sustained winds 5-15mph, could gust 20-25mph at times. Mixing heights
most likely around 5000ft or so but could be as high as 6000-7000ft; if
so, min RHs would be lower than expected. Current expectations for minRHs
in the 30-40 percent range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 5000-5300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (41.0-469.0) increasing to
                    excellent (673.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  18  11  12  5   4   2   4   0   11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............56  57  60  64  66  67  68  68  67  66
RH..............83  83  73  65  56  48  43  38  38  40
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..6   7   7   7   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.10  15  15  15  21  21  21  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  14  16  18  20  21  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....41  63  132 258 469 673 823 945 883 849
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 7 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph early in the evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (649.0) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (36.0-140.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   18  4   32  36  43  8   13  4   4   6   14
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  60  58  55  54  48  47  46  46  45  44  42
RH..............42  47  53  59  67  89  93  96  93  93  93  100
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.20  20  20  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  W   NW  NW  NW  W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  13  10  9   9   12  10  10  12  12  12  13
Vrate kt-ft.....649 140 55  36  37  47  44  41  46  45  45  51
Ventrate Cat....EXL FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........53 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west 6 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph increasing to 21 to 22
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 5000-5800 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (45.0-526.0) increasing to
                    excellent (671.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   12  9   24  21  37  42  41  44  50  33  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  41  40  44  51  55  57  58  59  59  60  59
RH..............96  96  100 100 86  77  69  62  57  55  53  53
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  21  21  21  22  22  22  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 3.1 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   NW  NW  W   W   NW  W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  15  20  21  21  21  22  21  21  22
Vrate kt-ft.....45  48  54  216 526 671 797 879 105310361014952
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623301.0/APX
.DELDT 10/07/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov