217
FNUS73 KAPX 301020
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Island Hill...MI DNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
620 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on October 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Any patchy fog at the burn site this morning is expected to
dissipate before the listed 12pm ignition time. Sunny skies are
expected today, continuing recent rain-free weather across the area.
Temperatures will warm into the low 50s this afternoon before
quickly cooling off into the 40s this evening and 30s overnight.
Winds will gradually increase out of the north leading up to
ignition time with expected 20 ft wind speeds between 5-10 mph
through the afternoon. Wind gusts to around 15 mph are anticipated,
but cannot rule out occasional higher gusts. Mixing heights will
also gradually increase from around 3kft to 4kft as daytime heating
continues through the afternoon. RHs look to dip between 45-50
percent later this afternoon -- staying well above critical/near-
critical thresholds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........50 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2600-4000 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (275.0-468.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  18  18  21  18  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............48  50  51  52  52  51
RH..............65  58  54  53  50  52
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  12  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....302 383 447 462 468 378
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 6
                    mph late in the evening.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......600-1200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (46.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........14  18  21  29  38  46  49  56  57  57  62  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  45  40  37  36  36  36  36  36  36  35  34
RH..............57  63  79  92  96  96  92  92  89  89  92  100
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   9   8   9   9   12  13  13  13  13  13  13
Vrate kt-ft.....103 63  46  53  53  69  76  80  76  83  83  83
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........56 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2700-3800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (91.0-569.0) increasing to
                    excellent (634.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  66  66  66  70  70  66  63  63  67  72  77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............33  33  33  36  40  43  45  47  47  48  48  47
RH..............100 100 100 96  87  79  70  63  60  56  56  58
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.18  18  18  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  17  20  20  18  18  18  18  17  17
Vrate kt-ft.....91  101 98  213 329 477 503 569 643 678 679 643
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2524745.0/APX
.DELDT 10/30/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov