Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
767 FNUS73 KAPX 310715 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Twayblades RX...USFS National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 31. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Combination of plenty of sunshine, increasing low level mixing, and the return of above normal temperatures will force relative humidity values to drop to near critical levels this afternoon. Southwest winds will slowly increase across the burn location, but look to remain mostly below critical levels. Good to excellent ventilation conditions expected by later this morning and afternoon. Good rh recovery expected tonight, with moisture again mixing out on Saturday, with more critical level rh values expected during the afternoon. There may be a few light showers during Saturday afternoon, but coverage of any showers will be minimal. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Max temperature.....Around 78. Min humidity........24 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 13 mph. Mixing height.......4400-5800 ft AGL. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Good to excellent (505.0-731.0). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........0 1 1 2 3 4 5 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............66 69 72 74 76 77 78 RH..............40 35 30 27 25 24 25 20 ft wind dir..W SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 ft wind spd..6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 ft wind gust.12 14 14 14 14 14 14 Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5 5 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.12 13 12 13 12 13 13 Vrate kt-ft.....505 611 592 698 650 731 731 Ventrate Cat....GD EXL GD EXL EXL EXL EXL .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Min temperature.....Around 52. Max humidity........75 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 14 mph. Mixing height.......4700-5400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1000 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Excellent (622.0) decreasing to poor (22.0) early in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........9 14 19 19 19 19 24 28 33 39 44 50 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............77 76 73 67 62 60 57 57 55 55 54 53 RH..............26 30 35 47 58 62 67 67 69 72 74 73 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW S S S 20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 3 5 5 5 20 ft wind gust.13 13 13 12 12 12 8 8 8 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 4.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Transp wind dir.SW S S S S SW SW SW SW SW S S Transp wind spd.12 14 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 9 9 Vrate kt-ft.....622 645 108 97 34 34 31 29 22 22 29 29 Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........27 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph early in the morning. Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph. Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4600 ft AGL late in the morning. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (31.0-444.0) increasing to good to excellent (447.0-639.0) in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........52 57 54 57 65 69 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN Tstm cov........ Temp............53 58 68 73 75 74 RH..............75 67 43 33 29 27 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S 20 ft wind spd..6 6 8 10 10 12 20 ft wind gust.12 12 17 20 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....300 400 2000 4100 4600 4000 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Transport wind..S 9 S 10 S 14 S 16 S 16 S 16 Vrate kt-ft.....31 40 249 562 639 545 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT GOOD $$ Forecaster...MSB Requested by...Corey Smith Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2415372.0/APX .DELDT 05/31/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov