National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 061223
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Spot Forecast for Ausable 16 Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
723 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on January 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

No fire weather concerns through the period with light
showers/wintry mix through the early afternoon. Fog and mist will
remain at times as well, especially this morning. Then chance for
light rain/snow in the afternoon and evening. Consequently,
mixing heights will be poor, generally near and below 1.0 kft.
Winds will be light, turning from the southeast this morning to
the northeast and north this afternoon, and would not be surprised
to see some variability at times in the direction. Precipitation
wanes tonight, with plenty of low level moisture and light winds.
Drier on Wednesday with light west winds, and slightly better
mixing heights, up to 2 kft possible.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Areas of fog through
                    the day. Light freezing rain late in the
                    morning. Rain showers through the day. Light
                    sleet and slight chance of snow showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........88 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (17.0).

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  93  93  94  93  93  94  94
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....FZR RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............31  32  32  33  34  35  35  34
RH..............100 100 100 100 96  92  92  96
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.12  12  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  E   NE  NE  N   N
Transp wind spd.8   7   5   5   5   5   6   5
Vrate kt-ft.....52  54  28  32  28  29  39  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    evening. Rain showers likely and slight chance
                    of snow showers early in the evening, then
                    slight chance of rain showers early in the
                    evening.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 13 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500-1300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (25.0-144.0).

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........94  93  91  89  81  83  84  84  84  83  86  81
Weather cov.....LKY SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............34  33  34  33  32  31  31  31  31  31  30  30
RH..............92  92  89  89  96  100 100 96  96  96  100 100
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.6   6   8   9   9   12  12  10  12  12  13  13
Vrate kt-ft.....25  25  55  65  74  97  100 95  110 131 144 128
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 37.
Min humidity........75 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2000 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (82.0-219.0).

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  82  83  80  76  75  75  76  73  68  63  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............29  29  30  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  36  34
RH..............100 100 96  96  92  89  89  85  82  75  79  85
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   8   8   8   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.9   9   9   12  12  12  15  15  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  10  9   9   9   10  12  13  13  12  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....103 85  82  86  101 136 183 219 215 192 165 148
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...JLD
Requested by...Patrick Hayes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2528352.0/APX
.DELDT 01/06/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.d.hayes@usda.gov.,patrick.d.hayes@usda.gov