599
FNUS73 KAPX 191451
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Pugsley Barrens...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1051 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION... Antecedent conditions today will lead to priming
drying conditions at the burn site. Latest data shows RHs in the
40s, but conceptually, efficient mixing may result in relative
humidities potentially dropping as low as the mid to upper 30s at
the burn site, with high temperatures well into the 70s.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, by ignition time, efficient mixing will
be underway with temperatures spiking into the mid 70s, likely
settling right around 80 for a maximum. Winds at ignition time
will be shifting to the west, perhaps even northwest, but will
remain rather light, generally gusts hold 15mph or less with
transport winds remaining in the 10mph range. Mixing height and
ventilation will increase considerably by late morning as a
surface inversion breaks down, which should yield excellent mixing
and ventilation by ignition time. Inversion settles in by sunset,
essentially stunting all mixing and ventilation. Increasing
moisture to commence Thursday night as the next system
approaches... and by Friday afternoon at the latest, showers and
thunder return. Winds Friday will increase, potentially with good
ventilation and mixing, with occasional 20ft gusts approaching
20mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........40 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west 7 to
                    10 mph late in the morning, then increasing to
                    around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 6300-7100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (15.0-501.0) increasing to good to
                    excellent (566.0-638.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   18  16  7   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0
Temp............75  76  77  77  78
RH..............45  43  42  42  40
20 ft wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 6.7 6.3 7.1 6.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....570 601 566 638 576
Ventrate Cat....GD  EXL GD  EXL GD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of thunder...12 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........87 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 3 to 9
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1400 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (13.0-466.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   0   9   6   23  40  44  48  52  59  67  74
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............76  74  72  68  64  62  60  60  59  59  58  58
RH..............43  50  55  63  73  75  81  81  83  83  83  83
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   2   2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  9   9   9   12  12  12  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  W   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  8   5   3   5   6   7   7   8   8   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....466 99  16  13  16  22  26  29  31  33  34  35
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...24 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........64 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (34.0-491.0) increasing to good to
                    excellent (581.0-641.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  73  73  73  72  72  72  73  73  70  66  63
Weather cov.....        LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............58  59  60  63  67  70  72  74  75  75  75  75
RH..............86  87  87  81  75  71  68  66  64  66  66  66
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.16  16  16  20  20  20  23  23  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   9   10  13  14  16  17  18  17
Vrate kt-ft.....34  37  47  65  95  144 238 366 491 596 641 581
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  EXL GD

$$
Forecaster...HAD
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620010.0/APX
.DELDT 08/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov