634
FNUS73 KAPX 150959
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for River road 2...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
559 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on October 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure moving into the Great Lakes
region will set the stage for a seasonably warm day near Oscoda,
with highs peaking in the upper 50s to near 60. Given the presence
of surface high pressure, winds are anticipated to remain on the
lighter side at the surface... likely not wavering much from where
they currently are speed wise (Oscoda - Wurtsmith AFB observation
at 0535 EDT currently showcasing largely NNW winds a little over 5
mph). Wind direction at the surface will veer NNE to NE with time
into this morning... likely holding there by the ignition time.
Transport winds will hold out of the north. Early morning clouds
will slowly scour out, and good mixing is anticipated, which
should lead to a persistent, yet, light flow through the day
(sustained 5 to 10mph... not anticipating any bigger gusts at this
juncture). RHs will likely hold anywhere from the mid 40s to mid
50s through the day following ignition.

Northeast winds quickly turn calm this evening, with a chilly
night ahead, featuring lows dropping near 30, perhaps into the
upper 20s the farther inland one goes from the lake... near 35 on
the immediate coast.

For Thursday, anticipating another dry day with highs topping out
around or slightly above 60 degrees following a chilly, and
perhaps even foggy / damp start. Wind direction turns more
easterly with time Thursday, but winds are anticipated to remain
on the lighter side again.. generally holding 5 to 10mph with
minimal gust concerns for the time being. It will eventually be
another good mixing day once the marine layer loosens its grip,
with mixing heights struggling to take off until the afternoon.
Owing to that easterly flow, anticipating RHs around the burn site
to probably hover in the upper 40s to mid 50s by Thursday
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........51 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-3600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (217.0-373.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  17  15  13  12  11  10  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  56  56  57  57  57  56  57
RH..............59  57  57  53  51  51  53  51
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.10  10  9   9   9   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.4
Transp wind dir.NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  12  10  10  10  10  10  9
Vrate kt-ft.....332 365 359 373 373 348 297 217
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (29.0-181.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8   8   7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  52  50  45  43  42  41  40  39  39  37  37
RH..............59  66  71  82  82  82  82  82  85  85  96  96
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   8   7   8   8   8   8   10  9   8
Vrate kt-ft.....181 51  40  34  29  34  32  32  32  41  36  32
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........46 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (32.0-163.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   12  15  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............36  35  37  41  49  54  56  58  59  60  60  60
RH..............100 100 96  89  74  64  57  51  47  46  47  49
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  9   9   9   7   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   7   6   5   5   5   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft.....32  32  32  33  58  95  115 136 158 163 149 118
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

$$
Forecaster...HAD
Requested by...Travis wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523635.0/APX
.DELDT 10/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov