901
FXUS63 KARX 211906
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
106 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Sunday night with above-normal temperatures.

- Rain chances from Monday afternoon through Tuesday...and then
  a gradual transition to rain and snow on Tuesday night...and
  snow Wednesday.

- Much colder on Thanksgiving with wind chills as low as the
  single digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Weekend

A weak cold front will move southeast through the area on
Saturday afternoon and evening. With the soundings showing very
little moisture with this system, kept the forecast dry. With
the air mass in the wake of this system being of Pacific origin,
there will be little temperature difference. High temperatures
will range from the mid-40 to around 50 along and north of
Interstate 94, and in the lower and mid-50s elsewhere for both
days.

Monday through Wednesday

A shortwave trough will eject out of the southwest US and then
move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and
Great Lakes. There are 2 general camps on how this will occur.
The first is that it will be rather progressive and move quickly
northeast through the area. This currently comprises of 78% of
the Grand Ensemble members. The second camp has this wave
phasing with the northern stream. This results in a much
stronger system (including a closed 500 mb and surface low) and
deformation band of precipitation. This cluster comprises mainly
of GEFS members and a total of 22% of the Grand Ensemble.

Thanksgiving

All of members are in general agreement that the area will be
seeing cold air advection in the wake of the ejecting shortwave
trough. Less than a quarter (22%) of the Grand Ensemble has some
lingering light snow showers over the area. High temperatures
will range from the mid-20s to mid-30s. Low temperatures on
Thanksgiving morning will range from the mid-teens to lower 20s
with wind chills in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours across the
region. Northwesterly winds will be come light and variable
tonight before southwesterly winds return tomorrow with some
gusts to 25 knots possible at the end of the period west of the
Mississippi, including at RST. If skies clear at LSE, would
need to keep an eye on valley fog potential tonight but the
return of southwesterly winds near 12z should either prevent
this or help end it relatively quickly for this time of year.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Ferguson