434
FXUS63 KARX 141703
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today and during the day on Tuesday with highs in
  the mid 80s to near 90F.

- Increased chances (50 to 80%) for more widespread showers and
  storms Tuesday night through Wednesday. Severe potential
  remains low at this time.

- Cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs in the
  70s and low 80s from Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Today: Mostly Dry

Northwest flow aloft continues overnight and into this morning, then
850mb winds shift southwesterly, with 500mb winds transitioning to
southwesterly Monday night. This will enhance warm air advection
over the region and raise dewpoints back into the mid to upper 60s
to near 70F. There is a weak surface boundary that will be situated
across central and northeastern Wisconsin and potentially all the
way back into southeast Minnesota. With this boundary, still cannot
fully rule some showers or storms forming. This boundary will
gradually retreat northward and so will any precipitation chances.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to near 90F.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Widespread Rain Chances

Tuesday will remain mostly dry as warm southwest flow continues.
Highs on Tuesday will continue to be in the mid 80s to near 90F. A
cold front is expected to come down from southern Canada beginning
on Tuesday morning and gradually shift southeastward during the day.
Frontal orientation continues to be nearly parallel to the upper
level flow pattern so storms will initiate near the front and
quickly grow. Due to the frontal orientation, the best severe threat
will be confined to where the front is located. As the front
approaches our CWA, some showers and storms will be possible in the
northwest portion of the CWA late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

Heading into Wednesday, there will be a surface low impacting the
region and by Wednesday morning, this low should be somewhere over
southern Minnesota/northern Iowa. Depending on how the storms
behave Tuesday night as well as the exact trajectory of the surface
low, will aid in determining where the storms can fire on Wednesday.
Currently, the low moves through during the morning and afternoon
and exits the area by the evening. Severe potential at this time
appears low at this time for both Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
timing of when the low moves through will also influence high
temperatures for the day. A later passage will allow the warm air
advection to continue through much of the day and keep temperatures
in the mid 80s to near 90F, whereas a quicker passage of the low
would lower temperatures into the 70s.

Thursday-Friday: More Rain Chances Thursday, Cooler

Behind the low that moves through on Wednesday, another shortwave
follows. This will bring some more shower and thunderstorm chances
for Thursday. By Thursday evening, the wave is far enough from the
CWA to no longer influence precipitation chances. As this wave moves
through the Upper Midwest, cooler air comes in behind it and as a
result, lowers temperatures for Thursday into the low to mid 70s and
for Friday into the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday have some potential to dip into the upper 40s,
based on NBM 10th percentile, along and north of I-94. Even the NBM
25th percentile shows upper 40s for parts of Clark and Taylor
counties in Wisconsin. Friday looks to be relatively dry across much
of the Upper Midwest.

Saturday-Monday: Active Weekend?

While the upper level pattern goes back to a more zonal pattern for
the weekend, the lower level pattern shifts back to southwesterly
and warm air advection returns. Deterministic guidance shows a few
shortwaves impacting the region into early next week. Ensemble
guidance favors a wetter more active solution compared to a drier
solution for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period outside of valley
fog along the Wisconsin River and its tributaries towards
sunrise Tuesday morning. Winds will be from the SSW at 5-10 kts
this afternoon and 10-15 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Skow