351
FXUS63 KARX 040716
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
216 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost for portions of north-central and central WI
tonight and Monday morning.

- Minimal precipitation chances throughout much of the week.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout
the week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Today - Monday: Frost Tonight & Monday Morning in North-Central WI

Upper-level northwesterly flow with surface high pressure building
into the region will be the main show for Sunday allowing for
sky cover to steadily decrease throughout much of the daytime
hours. As we head later into the evening and overnight, surface
high pressure moves overhead which will allow winds to trend
light and variable overnight. Consequently, the combination of
light winds, clear skies, and 850mb temperatures falling to
around 2-4 C will allow for some patchy to areas of frost across
the local area. Overall, the NBM has very high probabilities
(60-80%) for low temperatures to fall below 37 degrees across
much of north-central and west-central WI with some locations
in typical cold drainage areas potentially approaching the
freezing mark. Therefore, have hoisted a Frost Advisory in
typical cold spots of Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau,
and Adams Counties.

Tuesday - Friday: Dry with Near to Slightly Above Normal
Temperatures

Otherwise, as we head later into the week, temperatures will remain
relatively steady-state with persistent northwesterly flow across
the region and a relatively unchanged synoptic pattern.
Consequently, median temperatures in the NBM remain relatively
consistent with highs in the 60s to lower 70s through Friday.
Additionally, with the lack of any substantial synoptic forcing in
the northwesterly flow regime, thinking that precipitation chances
will be fairly minimal. This is supported by the grand ensemble
(GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) which has minimal probabilities (under
20% chance) for measurable rainfall through Friday across the
region. It is possible that if a shortwave descending into the Great
Lakes on Tuesday manages to trek slightly further south,
precipitation probabilities may increase slightly. However, ensemble
guidance generally keeps the highest measurable precipitation
changes well north of the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR expected through the 04.06Z TAF period. Immediate concern of
strong off surface low level winds potentially nearing LLWS
criteria at both TAF sites remains below thresholds and
therefore have omitted from TAF issuance.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAR