464
FXUS63 KARX 040607
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1207 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain persists through Thursday with on and off showers
  moving through the region. Most locations will pick up around
  0.5-1" of additional rain over the next 48 hours.

- Temperatures decrease to just a bit below normal by
  Thursday/Friday as rain and widespread cloudiness continues
  before returning to above normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Occasional rain continues through Thursday night

Upper low west of MCI with southerly moist fetch east of this
feature will continue to lead to periodic showers across the region
and plentiful moisture advects northward and upper disturbances move
northeast. Slight break will occur when the upper low churns
overhead Wednesday morning before wrap around disturbances move
southwest over the CWA as the upper low departs to the east. While
available moisture will be abundant today and tonight (03.12z DVN
RAOB had a daily record 1.5" of PWAT) forcing for ascent is in the
form of periodic shortwaves without the presence of a stationary or
quasi-staitonary boundary usually needed for training. Finally,
moisture and rain rates look to take a step downward as the upper low
departs and drier air begins to filter in from the northwest. 03.12z
REFS max rainfall reflects this with values of only around 1" of
rain after 18z today. Therefore, while many locations will receive
around an additional 0.5-1" of rain over the next couple days,
flooding concerns are minimal.

Temperatures fall and then rise

Progression of the upper low over the next few days will allow for
cooler air to push south into the region. This, combined with
occasional light rainfall and cloudiness, will lead to temperatures
in the upper 40s for Thursday and Friday, just a bit below normal
for early November. While there is a good deal of interquartile
temperature spread (8-10 degrees F per 03.13z NBM) Saturday and
Sunday, guidance largely points toward subtly rising heights going
into Monday of next week with around a coin flip (40-60%) chance for
highs to reach 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Temporary reprieve in widespread precipitation expected through
the early overnight hours. Precipitation shifts east with the
low center through the early morning hours, potentially
persisting through much of Wednesday. Therefore, have returned
IFR/LIFR impacts at both TAF sites through much of the 04.06Z
TAF period.

Confidence in MVFR impacts eventually increases after the 04.06Z
TAF terminus through Thursday morning. However, MVFR/IFR impacts
may linger through Thursday with eventual confidence for VFR not
until Friday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...JAR