943
FXUS63 KARX 120837
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
337 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain likely (55-70%) returns late this afternoon into tonight,
  lingering into early Monday morning.

- Periodic rain chances then for the latter half of next week.

- Mostly at/above normal temps through next week. A breezy
  afternoon or two possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Light rain likely tonight

07z WV satellite reflects large scale troughiness over the northern
Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. In response to a
jet streak advancing over the central Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is
occurring at the surface in eastern MT, driving southeasterly winds
in our CWA.

Today into tonight, lee cyclone will continue to develop and shift
over Lake Winnipeg as the jet streak noses over ND. Attendant cold
front will sweep eastward through the upper Midwest. With admittedly
modest moisture advection occurring today, some rain appears likely
as the front moves through. However, with the bulk of the upper
forcing focusing to our north, do not expect mid-level temperatures
to cool enough for enough instability to develop for thunderstorms
or high rain rates more generally to occur. Additionally, with
antecedent conditions in the low levels being relatively dry, rain
totals will tend to be unimpressive with 12.00z HREF maximum QPF
mainly below 1" and mean values of 0.05-0.15".

Periodic rain chances Tuesday through next weekend

Progressive pattern looks to dominate the remainder of the next week
with GFS/EC and their respective ensembles all suggesting multiple
upper waves will break downstream over or near the CWA, leading to a
few periods of precip potential. At this time, convergence across
guidance on a single solution is low so have retained NBM PoPs which
place mentions of precip across many periods Tuesday through
Saturday night. Over this extended time period, most probable period
looks to be Friday night into Saturday when a deepening upper low
may drop southeast from the Dakotas.

At/above normal temps favored, a breezy afternoon or two possible

While a progressive pattern is expected, 11.12z NAEFS 500mb heights
will tend to be around or higher than model climatology. Thus, NBM
highs around or warmer than normal (low to mid 60s) appear
representative. Active pattern also opens the door for a breezy
afternoon or two if strong 700/850/925mb winds set up over the
forecast area during the daytime hours. At this time, best bets for
breezy conditions are this afternoon and Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Increasing south-southeast winds early this morning ahead of a
frontal boundary will be initial aviation impact for the 12.06Z
TAF period. Higher dewpoint temperatures on surface observations
concurrent with meager radar returns places the north-south
oriented frontal boundary upstream through central Minnesota at
12.06Z TAF issuance. Increased winds of 25+kt gusts ween within
this warm sector. While accompanying precipitation cannot be
ruled out through much of today with the increasing moisture
advection, overall lower confidence (<30%) and coverage keeps
mention out of either TAF site at current forecast hour.

Higher precipitation chances progress from west to east later
this evening, becoming more widespread locally overnight into
early Monday morning. Northern jaunt to deepening surface low
into southern Canada limits initial confidence locally to north
of Interstate 90 until frontal boundary passage, near or
shortly after terminus of 12.06Z TAF issuance. Therefore,
haven`t increased precipitation mention at either TAF site at
this time and will need to be further assessed in coming TAF
issuances. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be main impacts
accompanying precipitation.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Precipitation chances and any
accompanying aviation impacts wane through Monday morning.
Subsequent potential precipitation (20-50%) and aviation impacts
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...JAR