171
FXUS63 KARX 301959
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
159 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the new week.
  The coldest temperatures are expected Thursday morning, when
  subzero lows are likely (40-95%), leading to wind chills in
  the double digits below zero. Winds may ramp up around
  sunrise, leading to dangerously cold wind chills.

- A quick hitting system moves through the Midwest Monday
  afternoon and evening, which will likely (30-90%) bring
  flurries and light snow to our forecast area. The chance for
  more an inch of additional snow is decent (30-70%), but this
  chance is confined mainly to far southwest Wisconsin.

- Snow may return Wednesday and around next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures ahead

Tonight, winds will drop and skies will clear somewhat, allowing for
temperatures to fall into the single digits. However, potential for
stratus to arrive from central MN and increasing mid to high level
clouds late in the nighttime period will limit overall radiative
cooling. Therefore, the chance for subzero lows is small (xx-xx% per
30.13z NBM).

Next upper trough slides southeast Wednesday with the associated
surface ridge building over IA Wednesday night into Thursday. Re-
invigoration of cold air near the surface and clearing skies will
likely (40-95%) lead to subzero lows. While winds look to be
relatively light as well, they may be enough near sunrise for wind
chills to reach -25 west of the Mississippi River valley. This will
depend on exact details of where the surface ridge will be centered
and how much of a breeze occurs around sunrise as the surface
pressure gradient tightens a bit.

Quick shot for snow in northeast Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin Monday

Upper trough currently over UT will advance eastward over IA/MO/IL
Monday into Monday night. Short period of modest southerly moist
advection should occur ahead of this feature Monday morning,
allowing for additional snow  to develop as the wave moves east. The
wave and best forcing remain well to our south, however some modest
lift should still occur in our CWA, particularly in far SW WI and
adjacent areas in IA where weak 700mb frontogenesis may be present
per 30.12z GFS. Vertical profiles suggest this modest lift will
include the DGZ so do think measurable snow is likely (55-90%)
southeast of a New Hampton IA to Mauston WI line. Short duration and
weak nature of aforementioned lift should limit snow accumulations,
although still a decent chance (30-70%) to reach an inch along and
southeast of an Oelwein IA to Richland Center WI line.

Additional snow potential Wednesday and around next Saturday

Another quick moving upper trough Wednesday should lead to at least
a few flurries and snow showers during the day Wednesday before
ushering in the aforementioned reinforcement of cold air. Broad
agreement across the 30.12z guidance suite that this will be a
decidedly positively tilted trough, a pattern that tends to limit
southerly moist advection to the region. This case appears to fit
that mold with available moisture supporting flurries as the trough
passes. Should it pass during the afternoon, steep low level lapse
rates extending to the DGZ could (20-35%) develop, leading to a few
snow showers as well.

More neutrally tilted open trough looks to advances eastward
sometime around next Saturday. Exact details and timing remain open
questions, but if everything comes together, would get enough snow
for impacts to roads. Will need to monitor this period over the
coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Sporadic MVFR ceilings will continue to be possible this
afternoon as a stratus deck breaks up due to mixing. MVFR
conditiosn will return to our northwest as a more extensive
stratus deck shifts southeast out of central MN. Some light snow
may move in from the southwest late in the period, but
probability is too low (20-25%) for a mention with this update.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Ferguson