998
FXUS63 KARX 031954
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
154 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold temperatures are expected tonight and into Thursday
  morning with lows falling below zero areawide. Wind chills of
  10 to 25 degrees below zero are expected Thursday morning.
  Highs will likely only reach into the single digits to lower
  teens for Thursday.

- Additional snowfall chances Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today-Thursday: Very Cold Temperatures

In the wake of a surface cold front passing through the area this
morning, temperatures will continue to gradually cool down from the
mid teens to low 20s early this afternoon to below zero later this
evening. To help cool down the temperatures more efficiently, skies
will clear out later this afternoon and winds decrease this evening
as the surface high sets up over central Iowa. When combining the
mostly clear skies and minimal winds with the current snowpack on
the ground, this will also aid in lowering temperatures quicker.
When looking at NBM probabilities, even the 95th percentile has low
temperatures for tonight below zero for most locations indicating
how cold tonight will be. Our current low temperatures for tonight
range from -5 to -15F. With winds being relatively light (less than
10 mph) there will be enough wind to impact the feels like
temperature outside. Minimum apparent temperatures for tonight range
from 10 to 25 degrees below zero. Compared to the previous couple of
days, we have lowered temperatures to take into account the
aforementioned conditions leading to more cooling taking place and
these temperatures could be even colder than our forecasted lows if
winds really diminish and we completely clear out. Depending on how
cold we get, the record low temperatures for both Rochester and La
Crosse could be broken. The record for La Crosse seems more
attainable as our forecasted low is -7F and the record low is -6F
set back in 1893. Taking a look at Rochester, their forecasted low
is -12F with a record low of -15F set back in 1886. There will also
be limited recovery Thursday afternoon with highs in the low to mid
teens and wind chills still in the 5 to 10 below zero range so make
sure to bundle up and wear multiple layers when heading
outdoors Thursday.

Friday-Early Next Week: Periodic Snow Chances, Below Normal
Temperatures

The upper level pattern for Friday shifts to a more zonal pattern
allowing for more warm air advection to move into the area. This
will help to increase highs on Friday into mid 20s. This zonal
pattern gets interrupted by a shortwave trough that moves through
Friday afternoon into Friday night. This wave increases snow chances
between 30 and 50% for areas along and north of I-90, with 15 to 30%
for areas south of I-90. Most ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS
have measurable snow for our CWA, as can also be seen in the
LREF`s probability of at least 0.1" (measurable snowfall) where
there is a 60 to 80% along and north of I-90.

Heading into Saturday/Sunday northwest aloft returns allowing for
various shortwaves to potentially impact our CWA. The first wave
dips down into the Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday into Sunday,
however there remains a large amount of uncertainty as to where this
trough goes. Deterministic guidance have two very different
solutions when looking at the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS pushes this
wave into the Central Plains due to the trough to our north being
stronger and more amplified whereas the ECMWF keeps the wave over
central Iowa as the trough to our north is not as strong as the GFS
makes it. These scenarios are also in the LREF cluster analysis
which has 3 total scenarios. The first is the GFS scenario which has
less than 10% of ensemble members support. The second has a 20%
chance of occurring and that takes the wave directly over the Upper
Midwest and gives our CWA a good chance (60 to 70%) of at least 1"
of snow occurring. The last scenario makes up 70% of ensemble
members and is what the deterministic ECMWF suggests where the
wave dips down in to central Iowa. This scenario would mainly
impact areas to the west of the Mississippi River where there
would be a 20 to 45% chance of at least 1" of snow. While this
system is not expecting to be that impactful, it is still
something to watch as this could bring another chance of at
least 1" of snow to parts of the forecast area.

Turning our attention to early next week, another disturbance moves
through the Upper Midwest Monday increasing snow chances once again.
As this wave exits another one enters the frame on Tuesday into
Wednesday. Now while this is still several days away, both
deterministic and ensemble guidance have honed in on another
system. There are plenty of details to sort out regarding this
storm but it does look like another chance at measurable
snowfall. Temperatures through the weekend remain below normal
with Sunday being the coldest with highs in the teens, otherwise
expect highs in the 20s into early next week, then potentially
some low 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A shortwave trough will produce flurries and scattered snow
showers as it move through the area this afternoon. Some of
these showers may briefly produce MVFR visibilities. They were
added to the KRST TAF through 03.22z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low temperatures will be 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal
on Thursday morning. These temperatures will be cold enough that
there may be some record lows tied or broken. Many of these
records were set in 1893, 1976, 1985, and 1991. Here are some
of the record lows for December 4.

Austin MN -10 in 1991
Charles City IA -9 in 1991
Decorah, IA -8 in 1991
Elkader, IA -9 in 1976
Fayette, IA -12 in 1976
Friendship, WI -7 in 2002
Grand Meadow, MN -25 in 1940
La Crosse, WI -6 in 1893
Mather, WI -9 in 1940
Medford, WI -16 in 1985
Mondovi, WI -9 in 1976
New Hampton, IA -9 in 1991
Prairie du Chein, WI -12 in 1893
Preston, MN -19 in 1985
Rochester, MN -15 in 1886
Theilman, WI -22 in 1985
Trempealeau Dam -9 in 1985
Winona, MN -6 in 1893 and 1991

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne