322
FXUS63 KARX 021844
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
144 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke is likely to persist through the weekend
  bringing hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and decreased air
  quality.

- Rain chances return towards the middle of next week and
  linger into the weekend.

- Mild temperatures through early next week before warming up
  into the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Today-Monday: Lingering Smoke, Mostly Dry Conditions

Smoke continues to impact the area with hazy skies, reduced
visibilities, and decreased air quality. This is expected to
continue into Monday as light southeast surface winds and the
lingering surface high keep the smoke over the Great Lakes and
surrounding areas. The concentration of smoke aloft and at the
surface will vary over the next few days. Diurnal mixing should help
to bring some smoke down to the surface. Mostly dry conditions
expected with the surface high in place. As the surface high shifts
eastward on Sunday, warm southerly flow returns along with a couple
of shortwaves that bring rain to most of Minnesota. There is
currently a low chance (10 to 15%) that these showers and storms
impact our northwestern counties on Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday-Saturday: Warm Up, Rain Chances?

During the rest of the week, there is a shortwave that impacts the
Upper Midwest almost everyday. This brings low rain chances
(anywhere from 10 to 20%) most days. Wednesday looks to be the best
chance until the weekend with PoPs in the 25 to 40% range as these
are reflecting a stronger shortwave moving through. Of the week
days, Wednesday has the best moisture transport into our CWA with
PWATs generally in the 1.6 to 1.8" range. Based on the longer term
models, the timing of this wave is later on Wednesday. Once this
wave enters the high resolution model timeframe, we will then be
able to get better confidence on timing and where the shortwave
goes. Helping to increase rain chances this week is the return of
warm southerly flow. Dewpoints begin to get back into the 60s by
Tuesday and the low 70s by Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to
show next weekend as the next chance for widespread precipitation
chances as a longwave trough shifts over the region. Temperatures
for this upcoming week begin to warm up on Tuesday with highs in the
low 80s and then for Wednesday into next weekend, highs get
back into mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions expected during the day with some areas seeing
MVFR visibilities due to wildfire smoke. This smoke is expected
to stick around through the TAF period so reductions in
visibility will remain possible. With another night of light
surface winds and low dewpoint depressions, valley fog will be
possible. The Wisconsin river valley should fog over however
the other river valleys, especially Mississippi River and
valleys west, are dependent on a cirrus cloud deck that moves
overhead sometime after midnight. The later this cloud deck
moves through then the fog potential will be higher.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Cecava