378
FXUS63 KARX 091141
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
541 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers this afternoon. Little to no
  accumulation expected.

- Cold temperatures today with highs having a hard time getting
  above freezing. Wind chills this morning in the single digits
  to teens and this afternoon in teens to low 20s.

- Trending dry and warming up for the second half of this week
  with potential for 60+ degree highs by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Today: Snow Showers, Blustery Winds

As one shortwave trough leaves the CWA, another one is right on its
heels and will move down into the Upper Midwest this afternoon.
With low level lapse rates of 8 to 9.5 C/km and continued cold
air advection working with this shortwave, snow showers will be
possible across much of the forecast area this afternoon and
into the evening. Minimal accumulation of a trace to a couple
tenths is expected. Ensemble and deterministic models continue
to show 850mb temperatures between -11 and -14C for this
afternoon which translates to high temperatures in the upper 20s
to low 30s. Temperatures this morning and tonight are quite
cool, with lows in the mid teens to low 20s. With a tighter
pressure gradient today, northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible with the strongest winds
west of the Mississippi River. These winds with the forecasted
air temperatures, will result in apparent temperatures in the
single digits to low teens this morning and the teens to low 20s
for this afternoon so if you have to go out today, bundle up!

Tuesday-Saturday: Gradual Warm Up, Trending Dry

Ensemble guidance continues to show ridging building in by the
middle of this week. There remains a low chance that a couple
shortwaves could move through Tuesday and Wednesday due to the jet
being located over the Upper Midwest, however the confidence is not
there for mentionable PoPs quite yet. There are about 40% of GEFS
and EPS members have measurable precipitation during this period and
it is all minimal amounts. By the middle of this week, the jet
pushes north and ridging builds in. As a result drier conditions are
expected with temperatures slowly warming back up. By Saturday, the
Grand Ensemble (GEFS, EPS, CMCE) has a 40 to 75% chance that
temperatures get above 60 degrees! Otherwise temperatures for
Tuesday through Friday go from the 40s on Tuesday to the mid to
upper 50s for Friday. The next chance for precipitation looks to be
Sunday as both deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing the
potential for system to move into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered flurries and snow showers will affect the region
today, particularly areas along and east of the Mississippi
River, including LSE. Due to increased confidence these will
develop but continued uncertainty about exact timing and
placement, have elected to maintain a PROB30 at LSE but include
an MVFR visibility mention within this. Outside of the snow
showers, ceilings will generally be in the 2500-5000 foot range
and VFR more often than not. Gusts out of the northwest to
around 25 knots remain possible through sunset late this
afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson