838
FXUS63 KARX 140531
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light rain likely later Tue through Tue night. Amounts
mostly from 1/4 to 1/2". Periodic rain chances then persist into the
weekend.

- Tue and Wed trending cool, albeit still near the mid Oct normals,
with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Warming after that with low-mid
70s returning for many Thu/Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Progressive upper level flow remains on track for the new week,
likely persisting into next week. A consistent signal in the GEFS
and EPS for the past several days. So ridge-trough, ridge-trough
transition every couple days. WPC clusters all on board with this
although with some variations in speed/strength of the
trough/ridges. All said, the flow favors periodic rain chances with
temps mostly at/bit above normal.


> RAIN CHANCES: numerous ripples in the upper level flow still on
pace to lift northeast out the plains and over the upper mississippi
river valley overnight tonight through Tue night. Not much
organization to these perturbations - a messy, disjointed
amalgamation - but also a consistent signal in the models. QG
convergence is weak and not much for upper level jet support. Broad
low level warm air advection is progged to push northeast with the
ripples, providing some additional lift and/or aid initial
saturation. Speaking of which, most of the moisture is confined to
the mid/upper level of the atmosphere at the outset, gradually
increasing in depth per saturating and/or advection. The deeper pool
of moisture does hold to the southwest but a large swath of weak
convergence on the nose of the 850 mb moisture transport across the
local area Tue night will provide an extra kick, and better moisture
to work on. Result of the broad lift and increasing moisture should
be an expansive area of light showers from Tue through Tue night
- with the higher chances and bulk of accumulations trending
for Tue night. For amounts, the 25-75% in the LREF suggest from near
1/4 to 1/2" are likely. Not necessary a lot of rain but expect
everyone will get wet.

Moving ahead...with the progressive flow more shortwave activity
periodically shift across the region - bringing additional rain
chances. There is the potential for a more well developed system(s)
and more pronounced shortwave(s) moving into the weekend.


> TEMPERATURES: a cold front pushed east/southeast across the
forecast area this morning with cooler/colder air following in its
wake. 850 mb temps progged to fall from around 12 C this afternoon
to around 6 C overnight Tue. Not exceeding cold but enough to cool
temps back to, or below, the mid October normals. Latest LREF brings
probabilities from 60 to 90+% for high temps under 60 degrees
generally along/north of I-90 Tue/Wed. With ridging becoming more
pronounced for the latter half of the week, milder air will return
to the region. Nearly 75% of the GEFS and EPS members warm highs
into the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu-Sat. The upper 5% warm into the
upper 70s.

While widespread frost is not expected this week there will be
pockets of mid 30s lows in the cold drainage areas of central/north-
central WI Tue morning. Winds will be light, but high clouds will be
spreading in from the west - working against frost development.
Given the mostly localized nature of the cold pockets along with
these locations having already experienced a frost/freeze
- don`t anticipate a need for headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Primary concern over the next 24 hours is potential for light
rain and associated MVFR conditions after 18z Tuesday. At this
time, looks like start of rain and flight rules reductions will
be delayed by drier air near the surface so have moved back
start time of PROB30 groups by a couple hours. The good news is
that TS continues to look doubtful (<10%) with this rain.
Otherwise, expect winds mainly in the 5-10 knot range with these
slowly turning clockwise from out of the north-northeast at
issuance to out of the east by the end of the period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Ferguson