343
FXUS63 KARX 151833
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
130 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain continue through Friday night.

- Mild temps return for Thu into Sat with 70+ degrees currently
looking likely for Friday (warmest day of the week).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

> OVERVIEW; broken record I know, but not a lot of change via the
GEFS and EPS over the past 5+ days with depicting a progressive
upper flow through the rest of the week, likely persisting well into
next week. A ridge comes in a for a couple days, then a trough, then
ridge...adnauseam. All WPC clusters ride the same train but they
start to stray from each other moving into the new work week. Some
are completely out of phase with one another - highlighting timing
differences within the long term guidance. Confidence and
predictability lower in this time frame as a result.

Bottom-line remains the same though - periodic rain chances with
some up and down in temps every few days, but still hovering near to
above the mid October normals.


> THROUGH THE WEEKEND: on and off rain chances. Mild Thu-Sat with
Friday shaping up to be the warmest of the bunch.

Bands of light showers persisting across IA at early afternoon -
associated with weak perturbations and low/mid level Fgen. The light
showers will gradually shift northeast across the local forecast
area through the afternoon and tonight as the main forcing
mechanisms take that track.

This Fgen region takes a more north-south orientation over eastern
WI on Thu as an upper level shortwave ridge sharpens just to the
west. Also.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 554
AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Widespread flight rule restrictions are ongoing and expected to
continue over the next 24 hours. Many locations as of issuance time
are experiencing IFR/LIFR conditions due to light rain and stratus.
As rain probability tapers off this morning, expect this to improve
slightly through the day to mainly MVFR/IFR conditions by around mid-
 afternoon. An additional round of rain may occur after 06z but
refrained from using PROB30 groups to cover with this issuance since
this falls outside the critical TAF period. westward and under the
ridge, low level moisture transport/convergence with favorable
thermodynamic lift should result in more showers developing across
southern MN/northern IA by 12z, spreading into western WI through
the morning and afternoon. Again, forcing is weak but the airmass
remains anomalously moist. PW anomalies still 2+ in the NAEFS and EC
with the RAP suggesting as much as 1.5". QPF in the meso models
generally paints 1/10 to 1/3". That said, there were a lot of 1/2+"
totals from the rain of yesterday/overnight - which were more high
end outliers in the meso models. So, models could be too low for its
QPF (and rain chances on the whole) as a result of the weak forcing.
These next rounds of rain/drizzle look to exit east overnight Thu.

Not a big break from the rain chances though as an upper trough with
accompanying cold front will be moving in from the northern plains
Friday. Stronger lift interacts with a ribbon of moisture transport
in the evening/night time hours - and medium range guidance
currently favors this period for the higher rain chances/qpf.

Further expansion in areal coverage and intensity likely as another
shortwave barrels northeast out of the southern plains Saturday.
However, the front is likely already east of the local forecast
area, holding the brunt of this interaction east.

As for temps, the region gets under southerly flow for the next few
days - with 850 mb temps climbing from around 8 C at 12z this
morning to as much as 15 C by 12z Fri. GEFS and EPS a bit warmer for
highs Fri compared to previous days with the upper 75% of their
members painting highs for 70+ degrees for most of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Low-level moisture will keep cigs at IFR to MVFR heights through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight. With some fairly
robust low-level saturation in the RAP/HRRR throughout much of the
period, any weak lift may result in a period of mist/drizzle across
the region resulting in occasional vsby drops to MVFR levels.
Otherwise, cigs will marginally improve to MVFR/low-VFR after
daybreak on Thursday as low-level moisture begins to lift
northeastward. However, this will likely (60-80% chance) be
accompanied by a period of showers during the morning which may
result in some MVFR vsby reductions. Winds will remain at around 5-
10 kts into the overnight from the east before shifting
southeasterly and increasing to around 10-15 kts after daybreak on
Thursday.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Naylor