123
FXUS63 KARX 022346
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
546 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain is forecast Today through Thursday with a
  moderate to high chance (40-80%) for totals to reach or exceed
  1 inch.

- Temperatures remain above normal for highs and lows through
  mid week before slowly decreasing next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today through Thursday: Widespread Rainfall

Rain is forecast to continue across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and
Iowa from today through Thursday. An upper level trough and low
pressure system are continuing to move east through mid week. An
H500 center of low pressure will trek northeast and is likely to
rest over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday into Thursday. Model
ensemble guidance depicts this scenario well with the newest
forecast cycle.

The pattern mentioned above will lead to multiple rounds of
showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the first round
already underway at the time of this writing. The latest HREF
continues to depict the areas of heaviest rainfall from today
through Thursday to the northwest of the region (southeast ND
into northern MN) and an additional area to the south (mainly
central/eastern IA). However, the southern area of higher rain
totals may still extend into the CWA, especially if scenarios
such as the RAP, NAM, and NAMNest pan out, which result in a
widespread 1 inch or more of rainfall during this time frame.
HREF and REFS mean rainfall totals through Wednesday morning
still depict a widespread 0.75-1 inch, with the highest totals
for our forecast area south of I-90 where there is a 10-30
percent chance for rainfall totals to exceed 2 inches. South of
I-90 is also the area that has the highest potential for thunder
(roughly 10-30% according to the NBM) so if any convective
processes can be achieved, they could lead to slightly heavier
rainfall rates.

Given the aforementioned low pressure system slows down and
remains over the Upper Midwest into Thursday, wrap around
moisture should lead to continued chances for showers. Forecast
models are in good agreement that the surface low will stay
just to the northwest or north of the forecast area on Thursday,
so the northern half of the area will have the higher chances
for rainfall during the day. As the synoptic and surface lows
exit to the northeast on Thursday afternoon into the evening,
the rain potential will decrease from west to east going into
Friday morning. Temperatures today and Tuesday should top out in
the 60s, which is above average for early November. However,
those temperatures will begin to decrease on Wednesday and
Thursday as the upper level low wraps colder air in over the
Driftless Region.

Friday into the Weekend: Trending Drier and Cooler

Zonal flow takes over on Saturday before another trough digs
south into the Upper Midwest during the second half of this next
weekend. This trough may bring additional chances (15-20%) for
precipitation late Saturday into Sunday after a mostly dry day
on Friday. The trough will also usher in a secondary,
reinforcing cooler airmass that will keep temperatures down near
average next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF
period as a weather disturbance continues to bring periods of
rainfall to the region. Consequently, the latest HREF/NBH has
very high probabilities (70-100%) for IFR cigs throughout most
of the TAF period. Additionally, given the widespread shower
activity, thinking that visibilities under 3 miles will be
possible with any heavier showers. Shower activity is expected
to persist throughout much of the TAF period across the bulk of
the region as suggested across all of the CAMs. Winds will
generally remain around 10-15 kts from the south through
tomorrow afternoon before diminish slightly towards 00z
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Record Warm Low Potential Tuesday (Nov 3):

               Record Warm Low (Year)     Forecast Low Temp
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rochester, MN       55 (1956)59 F
La Crosse, WI       58 (2022)   61 F

In fact, the forecast record warm lows for both Rochester and La
Crosse would break the all time monthly November record warm
lows if they pan out. The current monthly November records are
as follows:

Rochester, MN: 57 (Nov. 1938)
La Crosse, WI: 60 (Nov. 1938 and 2020)

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Muscha
AVIATION...Naylor
CLIMATE...Muscha