413
FXUS63 KARX 192343
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
543 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of drizzle tonight into Thursday morning.

- Above normal temperatures into early next week with highs
  generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.

- Potential change in the upper level flow pattern next week
  could allow for a more active weather pattern when it comes to
  precipitation. Near normal to slightly below normal
  temperatures are also looking likely for the second half of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today-Thursday: Drizzle

Deep low level saturation (lowest 3 to 5kft based on HRRR and RAP
soundings) causing low cloud decks, will linger through at
least Thursday morning across much of the CWA. At the same time,
warm air advection and this low cloud cover will help to keep
our temperatures relatively steady overnight with temperatures
mainly in the mid to upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Between now
and Thursday afternoon when a weak cold front moves through the
area, a few ripples will move through the region. These can be
seen by looking at the vorticity signature in different models.
The timing for these ripples is late this evening through
Thursday. As these little waves move through, RAP and HRRR
soundings are showing lift in the lowest levels indicating that
very light precipitation, drizzle, could fall. As a result have
continued mentioning drizzle for much of the forecast area
during the overnight and morning period. Something to monitor is
that with temperatures hovering around freezing for Taylor
County and portions of northeastern Clark County this evening,
freezing drizzle could be possible. There are a couple of things
to are against it such as not enough lift in the low levels and
ice largely remains present in the column, however there is a
little break this evening when some ice does the column that
freezing drizzle could occur. For now have left it out, but
again, can`t rule it out. Drizzle could continue into the
afternoon until the cold front moves.

Friday-Wednesday: Above Normal Temperatures and Mostly Dry Into
Early Next Week with Some Precipitation Chances Tuesday

Northwest flow aloft and a split upper level flow pattern will be
over the region into early next week. As a result, not much is
expected in the way of precipitation. A couple of waves do move
through this weekend but the GEFS and EPS have only a few members
suggesting measurable precipitation. Temperatures generally stay 5
to 10 degrees above normal and by Sunday and Monday temperatures
warm up a little more to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This
translates to highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for both days.

Heading into Tuesday, a low comes into the Upper Midwest from the
Desert Southwest. There are still differences in timing and location
for this low, but the general consensus is that most of the EPS
members (70 to 80%) continue to show measurable precipitation over
the forecast area while over the last couple of runs, the number of
GEFS members showing precipitation has gradually increased to
roughly 40%.

After Tuesday, northwest flow returns as a longwave trough moves
into the Upper Midwest. With this flow pattern, an active weather
pattern could return as we head into Thanksgiving and the following
weekend, as this pattern makes it easier for shortwaves to push into
the region and increase precipitation chances. One thing that models
do have a pretty good agreement on is the push of colder air coming
later next week. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are all showing
cooler air coming down with the longwave trough and staying over the
Upper Midwest into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low-MVFR to IFR stratus will persist across much of the region
throughout the TAF period as low-level moisture continues to
struggle to mix out of the low-levels. Recent HREF probabilities
continue to remain high (60-100%) for IFR cigs outside of river
valley locations where low-MVFR cigs are more likely. Cannot rule
out some mist or drizzle that may reduce vsbys to low-VFR or MVFR
levels however this would likely be very brief in nature. Cigs may
begin to improve late tomorrow afternoon as some dry air gets
advected in behind a weak frontal passage. Winds will begin the TAF
period from the south but will shift the west/northwest by 00z
Friday and remain around 5-10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Naylor