877
FXUS63 KARX 020556
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1156 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light snow accumulations from this afternoon into the
  early evening and from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  Snow accumulations of a trace to around a half-inch.

- Very cold from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Wind
  chills of 10 to 25 below during the overnights and early
  mornings.

- Another round of potential snow from Saturday into Saturday
  night. Lots of uncertainties on the track of this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

This Afternoon and Evening

A longwave trough will move southeast through southeast Minnesota,
Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and Illinois. While the best synoptic
forcing and 850 mb moisture transport will remain just south and
east, there is enough lift from 700 to 300 mb for some light
snow. Up to 100 mb of the sounding profile is located in
dendritic growth zone. This will aid in helping to produce some
light snow accumulations. Snow amounts will likely range from a
trace to a few tenths of an inch. After the passage of this
trough, the forcing quickly wanes.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning

Another longwave trough will move southeast through the area.
Like the system today, there is about 100 mb located in the
dendritic growth zone. This will aid increasing the snow to
liquid ratios close to the 13 to 1 snow to liquid ratio
climatology. With many of the models showing anywhere from a
trace to 0.3" of liquid. As a result expecting snow totals
ranging from a trace to a half-inch.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night

Arctic air will be located over the region. Low temperatures on
Wednesday night will be mainly in the single digits below zero.
Highs on Thursday will range from 5 to 15 above. Low
temperatures on Thursday night be range from around 0 to 5
above. Wind chills during the overnights and early mornings may
range from 10 to 25 below.

Saturday into Saturday Night

The models are in good agreement that yet another shortwave
trough will move southeast through the region. This one looks to
be stronger than its predecessors. Still plenty of spread in the
models from this system moving southeast across northern and
eastern Wisconsin and then southeast into the southern Great
Lakes to others which have this system remaining to our
west and south. The 01.12z operational models have been trending
more toward the western portion of model solution envelope.
Looking at the Grand Ensemble up to 15% of the members have snow
totals in the excess of 3 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Widespread IFR to low MVFR stratus is steadily clearing from
west to east overnight, with the back edge of the stratus near
the Mississippi River by sunrise and progressing further east
through the morning. IFR to LIFR fog is expected to develop as
the clouds exit west of the Mississippi River, with the fog and
any lower ceilings not clearing out until midday. VFR
conditions are most likely (60-80% chance) in the afternoon and
evening before a band of light snow moves in from the northwest
between 00-06Z. Winds will be from the southwest today at 5-10
kts, backing to the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow