871
FXUS63 KARX 251741
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers today, transitioning to snow overnight into
  Wednesday. Snow accumulations most likely north of I-90
  (60-90%) with the highest amounts expected in Taylor County.

- Gusty winds are expected tonight into Wednesday. Gusts of 45
  mph are possible, highest west of the Mississippi River.

- Mild temperatures continue today, becoming much colder
  Wednesday through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Periodic Showers Today Transitioning to Snow Overnight

A potent 500hPa shortwave trough ejects into the northern Great
Plains today, sparking strong surface cyclogenesis that will
eventually shift eastward into the Great Lakes region, moving
through tonight into Wednesday. Periodic showers are possible
throughout the day today (20-60%), most probable north of I-90,
within a weak 925-850hPa warm air advection regime as the
surface low and associated frontal system move into the region,
providing enough lift within the saturated low levels for
scattered precipitation. Shower potential increases this evening
(60-90%) along a cold front before a quick transition to snow
occurs tonight as strong cold air advection forces thermal
profiles below freezing within the deformation zone. As a
result, snowfall is expected for most tonight through Wednesday
morning, although accumulations are expected mainly for areas
along and north of I-90. However, there has been a southward
trend of this system over the past 24 hours which has shifted
the potential for higher snowfall amounts into our area.

The 25.01z NBM and 24.12z LREF ensembles now suggest 60-90%
probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snow for much of the
area although they maintain the highest probabilities generally
along and north of I-90. The most notable increase in snowfall
probabilities and subsequent amounts is across Taylor County
where probabilities for greater than 4 inches of snow now sit at
60-80% (as compared to 20-40% 24 hours ago), likely associated
with strong 800hPa frontogenesis situated of north-central
Wisconsin as the main surface low moves through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. If the southward trend continues,
these higher snowfall amounts may become more likely across more
of the region. Overall, a general 1-3 inches is expected for
areas along and north of I-90 with 2 to 5 inches possible in in
Taylor County.

Gusty Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday

A tightened pressure  gradient associated with the
aforementioned surface low, most notable on its western side,
will increase the low level wind field as it moves through the
region tonight into Wednesday. 925-850hPa winds increase to
around 50-60kts which combined with cold air advection on the
backside of the cold front should allow for efficient momentum
transfer of these strong low level winds to the surface, leading
to gusts of 40-45 mph across much of the region. The potential
for these strong winds is highlighted in both the 25.00z HREF
and 24.12z LREF which indicate 40-70% probabilities for 45 mph
gusts. The strongest winds are expected west of the Mississippi
River and begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Given a lack of snowpack and lower snow totals for areas that
are expected to see these stronger winds, not anticipating
widespread impacts from blowing snow although some visibility
restrictions may be noted at times. If the southward trend
continues however, visibility restrictions and overall travel
impacts will become more of a concern.

Mild Today Then Much Colder

Mild temperatures continue today under southerly flow. High
temperatures reach into the upper 40s to low 50s for most.
However, these don`t linger for long as the strong cold air
advection behind the surface low knocks temperatures down nearly
20 degrees by Wednesday, only reaching into the upper 20s to
low 30s. These cold temperatures Wednesday combined with the
previously mentioned gusty winds will lead to apparent
temperatures in the teens.

Highs through much of the week will struggle to break 30F with
very little spread in the 10th-90th percentiles of the 25.00z EC
Ens and GEFS through Sunday, leading to high confidence in the
current temperature forecast. More variation is introduced early
next week, although the general consensus of the EPS/GEFS
indicates temperatures are favored to remain below freezing,
which is also highlighted in the 25.01z NBM mean.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Lowered flight categories due to both visibility and CIGS,
mainly IFR to LIFR, through the overnight period then increasing
to MVFR to IFR for Wednesday morning. Light rain will move
through the area this afternoon and into the early evening.
There will be a slight break in the rain this evening and early
overnight, however with the low level saturation and lowered
CIGS (between 500 and 1500ft), mist will likely continue. During
the overnight, a rain/snow line moves into southeast Minnesota
and northeast Iowa between 03 and 05Z. This line will move east
and is expected to be at the KLSE terminal between 06 and 08Z.
Behind this rain/snow line, light snow will continue to fall
through the morning. Light south winds this afternoon will
gradually pick up this evening then switch to northwest winds as
a cold front moves through. With sustained winds of 25 and 35
mph and gusts between 45 and 55 mph, blowing snow will be likely
across open areas. The wind gusts diminish a little bit into the
afternoon.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for WIZ032-033.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
     WIZ017-029-034-041>044.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
     MNZ096.
IA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Cecava