185
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers gradually spread northward this
  afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning, before
  decaying by Saturday evening.

- Prolonged period of rain arrives Monday and continues into
  the middle of next week.

- After a brief cool down to end this week, temperatures warm
  back up into the low to mid 60s for early next week before
  cooling back down to normal for later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today - Saturday: Light Rain

After a dry day yesterday, high pressure moves off to the east
during the day today. At the same time southwesterly winds in the
low to mid level winds return as theta-e advection pushes it way
into the region starting this afternoon. With this flow regime,
moisture increases with PWATs roughly between 1 to 1.25" and
combining this moisture with the forcing moving into the region,
scattered rain showers will likely form beginning this afternoon and
continuing into the overnight. Heading into Saturday, more rain
showers are expected (60 to 80%) during the morning and early
afternoon with the coverage being more than today. Total rain
amounts are generally under 0.25" for most locations with portions
of northeast Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin, and southeast Minnesota
that could see more than 0.25" (20 to 40%) due to the showers
staying in tact for longer periods of time compared to locations
further to the northeast. Focusing on the Halloween evening
forecast, there still remains a low chance (10 to 20%) for some
lingering rain showers to occur, however most areas should remain
dry. It may end up being more of a cool and dry evening with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s for any trick-or-treaters than a
rainy one.

Next Week: Warmer and Wet Early with Cooler Temperatures and Lower
Rain Chances for the Second Half of the Week

Shortwave ridging remains in place for Sunday and into Monday while
a longwave trough moves in behind this ridging for early next week.
 Within this trough there are a few disturbances to watch, but the
more impactful one for our area would be a low pressure system that
develops in the central Plains and lifts northward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday and lingers through Wednesday. This system will
potentially be one of the stronger storms we have had this fall.
NAEFS PWATs are in the 99th percentile to the maximum percentile for
this time of year. Current forecasted PWATs are in the 1.4 to 1.7"
range. Dewpoints will get into the 60s for some locations which is
quite abnormal for this time of year. Now all this being said, these
ingredients will help in putting the area in a prolonged period of
rain. The main question is how much rain exactly will fall. The
better moisture is more than likely going to stay off to our west,
however if things can come to fruition and the better moisture can
stick around a little longer, resulting in a more easterly push,
than some of the ensemble outliers of 2 to 3" will be possible, but
at this time this remains a low chance of occurring (10%).

Temperatures for next week will start out quite warm for early
November, with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 50s, with
some upper 50s possible for Monday night, which is warmer than our
average high by several degrees! After the system moves out,
temperatures will cool down closer to normal with highs in the 50s
and lows back into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Predominant VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the
exception of some patchy fog in lower lying areas (10%). Light
and variable winds overnight will lead to east-southeast winds
of 5 to 10 mph Friday morning and continuing through the
afternoon. Some mid level clouds around 10kft enter the area
later this evening and stay through the period with some high
level clouds between 20kft and 25kft sticking around through
most of the TAF period. Light rain moves into areas south of
I-90 Friday evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Cecava