141
FXUS63 KARX 101043
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
543 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight showers depart by sunrise, with clearing skies and
  dry conditions for today and Saturday.

- Next chance of light rain comes late Sunday - early Monday.
  Impacts look to be low.

- Seasonably warm temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s through
  Monday, slightly cooler midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Showers Depart Early this Morning, Dry Start to the Weekend:

The pre-frontal 850-750-mb 320-325K theta-e ribbon responsible
for our scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
translates east of the region by sunrise, taking the shower
threat with it. Skies clear out quickly with sunny skies by
midday. Despite the passage of the surface cold front during the
morning, the ample sunrise and lack of strong cold air
advection in the wake of the front will allow temperatures to
still reach the mid-60s to low 70s areawide. A 1024-mb surface
high pressure cell slides through the region tonight and
Saturday, bringing continued clear skies and pleasant
temperatures.

Late Sunday - Early Monday: Next Shot of Showers:

A longwave trough begins to impose itself on the upstream flank
of our upper tropospheric ridge Saturday night with a sharp
negatively-tilted shortwave rounding the base of the trough and
lifting into the Northern High Plains later on Sunday. The
recent runs of the LREF membership have pulled back on the
potential for showers attendant with the leading 310K isentropic
ascent wing--instead focusing the higher PoPs later Sunday
afternoon/evening into Monday morning on the wing of positive
theta-e advection. While showers could still sneak into
southeast Minnesota during the day on Sunday, the forecast is
trending drier.

As the pre-frontal warm sector slides in Sunday evening, the
risk increases for elevated showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder. As with our current overnight showers, the overall
impacts from the showers will be transient and minimal with the
LREF mean QPF of 0.10-0.20" and even the 90th percentile of the
ensemble guidance staying under 0.50". The surface cold front
sweeps through by midday Monday and takes the precipitation
threat with it.

Broad WSW flow sets up in the wake of our early week rain.
Given the lower amplitude nature of the pattern, model solutions
begin to diverge quickly by midweek with the timing of any
disturbances propagating through the flow and the eventual
breakdown of the pattern later in the week. In all likelihood we
will see another round of rain in the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe, but the details remain too nebulous to say much else.

Temperature Outlook for Next Week:

With the backtracking on the risk for showers on Sunday, the
medium range guidance high temperature forecast has ticked
upward by a few degrees for Sunday with many locales possibly
touching 70 degrees south and west of I-94. The passage of the
cold front Monday sends temperatures back to slightly below
seasonal normals for Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond mid-week, the
interquartile temperature spread increases to 10+ degrees owing
to uncertainties in the pattern evolution. There are a
respectable number of EPS members that bring a warm sector into
the region late in the week--a solution only a select few GEFS
members show.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Main aviation impact will be quick wind shift this morning with
passing frontal boundary. Surface observations at 10.12Z TAF issuance
show postfrontal northwest winds grazing the northwestern periphery
of the forecast area in southeast Minnesota; expected to impact KTOB
by 13Z. Lack of increased low level winds limits overall wind speeds
today as northerly wind gusts are expected to remain below 20kts.
High pressure causes light and variable winds tonight through
Saturday morning.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Subsequent precipitation chances progress
southeast through the forecast area Sunday evening/night, lingering
through Monday. Southeast winds increase Saturday evening through
Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...JAR