215
FXUS63 KARX 032347
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
647 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain shower chances (20-70%) increase this afternoon
  into early this evening with the highest chances north of
  I-94. Rain amounts under 0.25" are expected.

- Temperatures may drop low enough to form frost across central to
  north-central Wisconsin on Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures into next week with
  highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

This afternoon through tonight: Light Rain Showers

A quick moving upper level trough is traversing southeast out of
the Dakotas towards the Upper Midwest this afternoon through
tonight. This feature is propelling a surface cold front
southeast that should reach the CWA tonight. Before that occurs,
low level temperatures will increase a few degrees today when
compared to yesterday so that should result in highs being a few
degrees warmer, but still in the 60s. Synoptic scale lift out
ahead of the trough should continue to generate isolated rain
showers throughout the day. The better potential for rain will
come later on this evening into tonight as the trough moves over
the region. Rain chances increase up to 40-70 percent this
evening, with the highest chances along and north of I-94. Rain
may develop just south of I-90 overnight as well, but the
chances in that occurring are much lower (10-30 percent).
Rainfall amounts should remain light around a quarter inch or
less.

Sunday into Monday: Frost Potential Sunday Night/Monday Morning

In the wake of the frontal passage on Sunday, the only
noticeable change will be the wind direction throughout the
day. The wind should be out of the northwest with some gusts up
to 20 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will be nearly identical
to today in the 60s. Mostly clear skies are expected throughout
Sunday into Monday, which will aid in strong radiational cooling
overnight. Widespread lows in the lower 40s to mid 30s are
forecast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and frost may
develop across central to western Wisconsin. The latest 03/13z
NBM probabilities indicate a 20- 50% chance for overnight lows
to drop down to 35 degrees or less for locations near Black
River Falls, to the east, and further north towards Medford.
Frost Advisories will likely be needed in future forecast
updates given this potential. After a cool start to Monday,
temperatures will rebound right back into the 60s with continued
clear skies due to surface high pressure just to the south of
the CWA.

Rest of Next Week: Near Average Temperatures and Dry Conditions

Synoptic flow is forecast to be mainly zonal through the next work
week. This pattern should lead to mainly quiet weather across much
of the country, including the Upper Midwest. High temperatures each
day will be around average for early October in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. At this time, overnight lows beyond Monday morning do
not appear to get close to frost or freeze conditions. Mostly
clear skies with dry conditions are forecast for much of the
week until mid level moisture tries to push back north late
week. As of now, the potential for rain associated with the
increased moisture appears very low, but cloud cover should
increase as a result. Temperatures may also rise up above
average late week as upper level ridging may increase over the
central part of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF period
with light showers pushing through the region this evening.
Overall, given the relatively weak reflectivity cores and lack
of upstream visibility reductions, thinking that category
reductions are unlikely this evening. Otherwise, sky cover will
decrease overnight with winds shifting to northwesterly into
the daytime hours on Sunday at around 10 kts. Valley fog at KLSE
seems unlikely during the early morning on Sunday as strong
winds just off the deck should keep any potential for valley fog
to a minimum in addition to the northwesterly surface winds.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Muscha
AVIATION...Naylor