758
FXUS63 KARX 101737
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1137 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries will be possible tonight into Tuesday morning
  but neither accumulations nor impacts are expected.

- Breezy conditions appear likely for Wednesday, but details are
  not coming together for impactful speeds to occur.

- Highs in the 60s may (25-80%) return by Saturday with some
  rain potential for next weekend as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A few flurries tonight into Tuesday morning

08z WV satellite shows cyclonic flow centered over Chicago with
north-northeasterly winds over our CWA. Off the Pacific Northwest
coast, another notable upper wave is moving eastward, riding the
northern periphery of a ridge centered over the Great Basin with an
axis of higher heights extending northward a bit to the western
Canadian Prairies.

Today, aforementioned northern extension of ridge will advance
eastward, allowing for temperatures to moderate just a bit as
heights aloft increase.

Tonight into early Tuesday, disturbance west of Cascade will
advance over the ridge and then dive southeast. Cooling aloft
associated with this wave should lead to a saturated DGZ and
introduce dendrites into the column. However, as the crystals
fall, they look to encounter a very dry 700-900mb layer with the
10.00z HREF mean sounding suggesting that saturation through
the column will be short-lived if it occurs at all. Have
therefore kept snow accumulations out of the forecast and held
PoPs below 15.

Breezy Wednesday

Northwesterly flow aloft becomes predominant by Wednesday as the
upper cyclone to our east finally moves over the Atlantic. 10.00z
GFS suggests that a 45/50 knot 850/700mb upper jet will be present
over the CWA around sunrise with this potentially lingering thru 15-
18z, opening up the possibility for notable surface winds. However,
progged soundings suggest that boundary layer depth will be limited
by a slight inversion at/above 850mb, hampering the ability for
these winds to be brought to the surface. Indeed, 10.01z NBM
probabilities suggest that winds will very likely remain below wind
advisory levels for both sustained winds (0-10% chance to reach 30
mph) and gusts (0-15% to reach 45 mph) but will need to keep an eye
on things, particularly if the 850/700mb jet can linger longer into
the afternoon than guidance currently favors.

Warming trend through Saturday, rain potential next weekend

Heights aloft will build into the latter part of the week with a
transient upper ridge moving over the forecast area Friday into
Saturday. Temperatures may reach 60 both days (5-60% and 25-80%,
respectively). As the next longwave upper trough advances over the
CONUS, rain may (15-45%) occur at times but the progressive pattern
suggests potential for impactful amounts will be very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A bkn to ovc MVFR/low-VFR deck will continue to push east/southeast
across the local area this afternoon as diurnal mixing processes
attempt to erode it. Currently, much of the short-range guidance is
really struggling at capturing this deck but based on the low-level
saturation fields in the recent RAP, have kept MVFR to low-VFR cigs
at KRST and KLSE throughout much of the afternoon and through 00z
before improving to VFR. Otherwise, conditions remain VFR outside of
some flurries that progress through the area overnight and into the
early morning hours tomorrow. Winds will increase overnight to
around 10-15 kts from the south and persist throughout the morning
hours tomorrow.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Naylor