192
FXUS63 KARX 152323
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
523 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day with above-normal temperatures and then more
  seasonable temperatures for next week.

- Rain and snow showers possible (30 to 60%) from Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Highest precipitation
  accumulations will be south of Interstate 94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today - Sunday: Dry and Cooling Down

A cold front has moved through the region bringing some gusty
northwest winds behind it. This is pulling even drier air into the
region with a surface high slowly dropping southeast out of the
Canadian Plains.  With this cooler and drier airmass settling in,
temperatures as of 1 PM have likely already hit their peak and
should come start to slowly come down before sunset. Low level winds
will be a bit too strong to see peak radiational cooling
conditions tonight but lows should still fall into the mid 20s
to low 30s. Low lying spots across Central Wisconsin and the
cranberry bogs will likely go even lower into the teens to lower
20s.

Temperatures tomorrow will be notably cooler than the past few days
with highs in the 40s. Though this may feel on the cool side,
temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year.
The main point of note will be the potential for fire weather
concerns. Dew points in the teens will allow for RHs to fall to
between 25-35 percent by tomorrow afternoon. Some locations
along and east of the river could see winds in the 10-15 mph
range with some stronger gusts out of the northwest. While maybe
not quite headline worthy, fire weather conditions will
certainly be elevated tomorrow afternoon.

Monday - Next Weekend: Multiple Chances for Precip with Seasonal
Temperatures

A cutoff upper low currently sits just off the Southern
California coast. This is expected to pivot northeast to rejoin
the main upper level flow through the day on Monday, creating a
shortwave trough and subsequent weak surface low as it moves
out of the Central Rockies. Current ensemble guidance keeps the
center of the low off to our south but our area will still be well
within the precipitation shield. As this moves in Monday
afternoon, precipitation should start off as rain for most. As
the sun goes down and we lose daytime heating, 12Z NAM/GFS
soundings show a deep isothermal layer developing that tends to
hug the 0 deg C line which would favor a mix of rain and snow.
Places in the Chimney and along/north of I-94 could see a
transition to all snow during the overnight hours. This precip
mix will likely continue into the morning hours on Tuesday
before rain chances gradually move east. There remains a small
chance for freezing rain/drizzle Monday night for areas along
and north of I-94 if we lose ice aloft. Confidence in this
occurring is still far too low to include this in the forecast
for now but will be something to keep an eye on going forward.

We dry out for Wednesday with continued cool temperatures in the low
to mid 40s. With the progressive upper level pattern expected to
continue through the rest of the week, we`ll see a sort of rinse and
repeat with another shortwave trough ejecting northeast and a
surface low to our south. The main discrepancy is that
temperatures look to be a little warmer with the Friday system
so most precipitation should fall as rain. Temperatures into the
weekend should remain seasonal in the 40s with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with a few mid-
level clouds possible during the forecast period. Winds will start
the TAF period around 10-15 kts from the northwest but will quickly
diminish to around 5-10 kts during the evening and into the
overnight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Naylor