443
FXUS63 KARX 251049
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
549 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and cloudier conditions expected through the start of
  the week as higher precipitation chances shunt slightly west
  and northwest of the forecast area.

- Limited confidence and agreement on widespread precipitation chances
  late week into the weekend as LREF members remain split on
  synoptic setup while NBM PoPs Friday and Friday night (40-60%)
  increase for Sunday (50-75%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Cooler & Cloudier Start to New Week:

While upper level GOES water vapor imagery loops depict three upper
level areas of cyclonic rotation along and west of the Mississippi
River Valley, the local forecast area will remain mostly unaffected
and dry through the start of the week due to temporary amplification
of the residual upper level ridge. The upper level low over southern
Canada seen shifting east estranges a surface frontal boundary,
currently bifurcating the western half of the forecast area, into a
low level stretching axis through Sunday. As a result, an area of
low level anticyclonic rotation over southwest Canada temporarily
strengthens the synoptic ridging over the forecast area through
Sunday, shunting the subsequent upper level low currently over the
Desert Southwest farther northwest than previously forecasted Monday
night through Tuesday. Resultant precipitation potential (20-40%)
grazes locally western counties in southeast Minnesota overnight
through Monday night. May not see any measurable precipitation out
of this round as synoptic forcing is weakening and ridging affects
local forecast area.

A cloudier and cooler forecast than recent days is expected due to
the passing synoptic lows and a filament of increased low level
moisture over the forecast area.

Low Confidence In Precipitation Through The Week:

Eventually, the upper level low slowly sagging south along the
Pacific Northwest on upper level GOES satellite imagery loops grabs
the leftovers of the early week upper level low with potentially a
more zonal orientation towards the forecast area through the late
week. Although, a similar low level anticyclonic setup could abstain
the local forecast area from the higher precipitation potential
currently suggested by the NBM (40-60%) until next weekend when the
GEFS (24.12Z) advects a mid level trough through the central CONUS.
Although, the concurrent EPS (24.12Z) suggests mid level ridging
with diffluent flow at the time which will affect the widespread 50-
75% PoPs initialized in most recent NBM for Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A cold front will move southeast through northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin today. As this front moves through, the
winds will shift to the north. Wind speeds will remain less than
10 knots. Ceilings in the wake of this front will range from 3
to 6K feet.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...Boyne