094
FXUS63 KARX 061811
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
111 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This will likely be the 5th consecutive Labor Day weekend to
  be dry for La Crosse and Rochester. Prior to this stretch, the
  longest stretch was 3 consecutive holiday weekends (2007-09).
  Labor Day holiday weekends statistics date back to 1971.

- Heavy rain and severe weather possible on Tuesday afternoon
  and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Tonight

With southeast winds ushering in drier air into the region
and a well-mixed boundary layer underneath the nocturnal
inversion, not expecting widespread fog tonight. If there is
any, it would be found in the Wisconsin River, lower Kickapoo
river, and Mississippi river tributaries.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-50s to lower 60 in
western Wisconsin, and in the lower and mid-60s in northeast
Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

Labor Day

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered over Michigan`s Thumb
area will keep much of the area dry on Labor Day. If there is
any rain (up to 20 percent), it would be west of Highway 52 in
northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to lower 80s. The
warmest temperatures will be found in the river valleys.

Late Monday night into Wednesday morning

A strong, shortwave trough will move slowly east from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Southerly winds will pool
the low-level moisture along the cold front as its moves slowly
southeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Precipitable water values
will range from 2 to to 2.5 inches and warm cloud depths will
range from 4 to 4.5 km. This will result in some heavy rain. The
48-hour NBM-CONUS Whas a 40-50 percent chance of 1 inch or
greater and a 5 to 20 percent chance of 2 inches or more.

Surface-based CAPES will range from 250 to 1250 J/kg along and
ahead of this front. The 0-3 km shear will range from 30 to 40
knots. This could result in some strong to severe storms. The
main threats will be damaging winds and large hail on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

High temperatures will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s on
Tuesday and from the mid-70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. Low
temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

With southeast winds ushering in drier air into the region
and a well-mixed boundary layer underneath the nocturnal
inversion, not expecting widespread fog tonight. If there is
any, it would be found in the Wisconsin River, lower Kickapoo
river, and Mississippi river tributaries.

Both the ceilings and visibilities will be VFR through 18z
Monday. Southeast winds will gust up to 20 knots on Labor Day
morning west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

This looks to be another dry Labor Day weekend for La Crosse and
Rochester. This could potentially be the 5th consecutive (dating
back to 2022) dry Labor Day weekend for both sites. This is the
longest stretch. Prior to the current one, the longest stretch
was 3 years from 2007 through 2009.

For Rochester, this holiday weekend could potentially tie 2018
for the 3rd warmest average low temperature (65.7F) and 2012
for the 6th warmest average temperature (72.2F).

Labor Day holiday weekends statistics date back to 1971. This
was when the Uniform Monday Holiday Act began.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne