293
FXUS63 KARX 031155
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
555 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain persists through Thursday with on and off showers moving
through the region. There is high confidence (50-80%) for additional
rainfall totals over 1/2" through this timeframe, especially south
of I-90.

- Temperatures will be well above normal today with highs in the 60s
to near 70. However, temperatures will gradually decrease throughout
this week and into the weekend.

- Conditions trend drier this weekend with much lower chances (10-
20%) for showers

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today - Thursday: Persistent Off and On Rainfall

A fairly stubborn upper-level troughing regime is in store for the
region throughout much of this work week, which in turn will likely
keep our conditions cloudy and rainy. Deterministic guidance
(GFS/EC/Canadian) has generally agreed on the following notion that
the upper-level shortwave trough currently situated over western
KS/OK/TX will interact with a secondary upper-level low center over
the Northern Great Plains. As this occurs, the southern trough will
gradually be pulled northeastward in the main synoptic flow pattern
and thus continued to pivot pieces of vorticity advection through
the synoptic flow into the region for the day on Tuesday.
Consequently, measurable precipitation chances remain relatively
high (60-100%) in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble)
during this timeframe.

As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, the two aforementioned upper-
level features phase with each other into a closed upper-level low
over the Upper Midwest that gradually pushes northeast through the
Great Lakes region. As a result, rainfall chances continue to
persist across the region with high probabilities (50-90% chance) for
measurable rainfall given any 6-hr interval during this timeframe in
the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). Eventually, the
upper-level low pushes northeast from the region bringing any
precipitation potential with it.

Consequently, expecting conditions to be cloud with periods of rain
through Thursday before the low departs to the east by Friday
morning. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, precipitable
waters remain fairly impressive in the presence of the upper-level
low with values remaining around 1-1.5" in recent deterministic
guidance, with higher values possible south of I-90 for today.
Consequently, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has
high probabilities (50-80%) for additional rainfall over 0.5" today
with amounts trending lighter as moisture becomes more limited as
the upper-level closed low begins to trek eastward. As far as
temperatures are concerned, the warmest temperatures will likely be
today with the southerly push out ahead of the surface low
associated with the aforementioned northern upper-level low.
Consequently, the NBM has highs generally in the 60s to perhaps
nearing 70 for today. With the moisture present over the region,
overnight lows may not fall much with lows realistically only
falling into the middle 50s to near 60. This changes noticeably on
Wednesday and Thursday as the aforementioned upper-level low begins
to move east, allowing for westerly flow to usher in some cooler
temperatures for the region with highs falling into the 50s and
lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday into the Weekend: Trending Drier and Cooler

Zonal flow takes over on Saturday before another trough digs south
into the Upper Midwest during the second half of this next weekend.
This trough may bring additional chances (15-20%) for precipitation
late Saturday into Sunday after a mostly dry day on Friday. The
trough will also usher in a secondary, reinforcing cooler airmass
that will keep temperatures down near average next weekend.

Muscha/Naylor

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Ongoing precipitation and IFR-MVFR impacts expected to continue
through much, if not all of the 03.12Z TAF period. The
responsible trough and surface low continue lifting through
northeast, lingering over the forecast area through Wednesday.
Resultant precipitation chances linger through Wednesday night
and potentially Thursday at both TAF sites (KLSE/KRST)
accompanied by IFR/MVFR ceilings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Record Warm Low Potential Tuesday (Nov 3):

               Record Warm Low (Year)     Forecast Low Temp
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rochester, MN       55 (1956)59 F
La Crosse, WI       58 (2022)   61 F

In fact, the forecast record warm lows for both Rochester and La
Crosse would break the all time monthly November record warm
lows if they pan out. The current monthly November records are
as follows:

Rochester, MN: 57 (Nov. 1938)
La Crosse, WI: 60 (Nov. 1938 and 2020)

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Muscha
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...Muscha