735
FXUS63 KARX 101913
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
111 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries, scattered snow showers overnight. Minimal impacts

- Warming through the week with Saturday the warmest (10% shot for
70+ degree highs along/south of I-90)

- Rain showers return Saturday into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

> TONIGHT-TUESDAY: flurries?

Distinct shortwave trough on latest watervapor imagery over the PAC
NW will spin southeast tonight with short term guidance suggesting
it becomes a bit less defined as it tracks over the upper
mississippi river valley overnight/Tue morning. Good bit of north-
south running low level thermodynamics precedes the shortwave across
the region, evidenced by isentropic upglide along the 285:295K
surfaces between 06-12z. Narrow band of Fgen in the 700:600 mb layer
too. Decent amount of forcing for pcpn production - if there is
enough saturation. And that`s the sticking point.

Bufkit soundings in the RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS all depict a sizable dry
layer sub the initial mid level cloud bases (8+ kft), T/Td spread is
25 to 30+ C in a 6kft layer tonight. The low level warming will work
to saturate this layer, but how effective, and how low into the
atmosphere is not clear. The thermodynamics may just set the stage
for the shortwave, lowering cloud bases enough to allow for the
shortwave to squeeze out light snow and/or flurries. Experience says
forcing beats out apparent lack of saturation "every time",
especially if said forcing it moderate+. This feels like that kind
of scenario. The sensible weather outcomes are probably just some
flurries and perhaps a thin band of light snow. Minimal if any
accums or vsby restrictions.


> SECOND HALF TO THE WEEK: warming with highs topping 60+ Sat. Dry
into Friday with some rain chances for the weekend.

-OVERVIEW: No change in the GEFS and EPS with increasing heights
through the rest of the work week. Amplifying west coast ridge then
still on pace to slide its axis over the plains Thu, then the
western great lakes by 12z Sat. This doesn`t stick around long as an
upper level trough is already pressing in from the plains on
Saturday. Considerable questions on whether shortwaves in the
northern and southern streams of the flow interact before reaching
the forecast area - which would deepen/shift storm track southward
if they did, or be a northern stream, likely open wave dominant
feature locally. Impacts to strength and timing of the system. WPC
clusters show this well with a couple depicting a much stronger
shortwave moving across the central US and the other 2 holding onto
a "weaker" split flow. Eitherway, sensible weather favors rain
chances - how much, where the higher chances would lie are unclear.

The long range guidance then shifts to more of a progressive upper
level flow moving into the next week, with shortwave troughs/ridges
alternating every couple days.

-TEMPERATURES: 850 mb temp anomalies already +1.5 to 2 Sat while
EFIs reach 0.7 to 0.8 with a non-zero SoT. Real good signals for
anomalous warmth at 6 days out. The upper 10% of the NBM paint 70+
degree highs along/south of I-90 Saturday. The lower 5% (the coldest
the models think it could get) is at or above the mid November
normals. Friday also looking very mild but could be as much as 10
degrees cooler compared to Sat. Rain chances Sat could mitigate some
of this expected warming.

Temperatures settle back post the trough Sunday, but the upper level
flow still trending more progressive for the following week. EPS and
GEFS still suggesting at/above normal temps as a result.

-PRECIPITATION CHANCES: as mentioned above, the next shot for
precipitation comes this weekend as a shortwave trough moves in from
the plains. Model differences in the evolution of the system lowers
predictability and confidence in the outlay of higher chances/qpf.
Some solutions would have a stronger fetch of southerly moisture
advection and a ribbon of instability reaching into southern
portions of the forecast area (thunder chances). Others hold this
south. Sensible weather outcomes still say there is a good to likely
shot for rain Sat into Sun. Will ride the model blend for chances
for now, but expect refinement to expectations as we move through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A bkn to ovc MVFR/low-VFR deck will continue to push east/southeast
across the local area this afternoon as diurnal mixing processes
attempt to erode it. Currently, much of the short-range guidance is
really struggling at capturing this deck but based on the low-level
saturation fields in the recent RAP, have kept MVFR to low-VFR cigs
at KRST and KLSE throughout much of the afternoon and through 00z
before improving to VFR. Otherwise, conditions remain VFR outside of
some flurries that progress through the area overnight and into the
early morning hours tomorrow. Winds will increase overnight to
around 10-15 kts from the south and persist throughout the morning
hours tomorrow.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....Naylor