965
FXUS63 KARX 241903
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
103 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through Tuesday and then turning much
  colder.

- Periodic rain into Tuesday. Rain changing over to snow on
  Tuesday night, and periodic light snow or flurries into
  Thanksgiving. At this time, the best chance of snow
  accumulations will be north of Interstate 90.

- More snow accumulations possible on Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tonight through Tuesday

The 24.12z operational models and the 24.00z Grand Ensemble remain
in good agreement that a southern stream shortwave trough will move
northeast through the Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Like
the past couple of days, BUFKIT soundings continue to show that the
air mass will be sufficiently warm enough for this precipitation to
fall as rain. Unlike yesterday, the 700 mb trough looks to be a bit
stronger than yesterday. As a result, the rain totals have increased
in the 24.12Z HREF. It now looks like much of the area will receive
anywhere from a tenth to a half inch.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday

The models still are in good agreement that a much stronger northern
stream shortwave trough will move east through the region from
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unlike its predecessor, the upper
level shortwave is much stronger. This results in a stronger
surface low and deformation band. Looking at the clusters, there
is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how south the measurable
snow will get. 49% of the members either have more ridging
upstream (24% of the members) or a deeper trough (25% of the
members). In these scenarios, the measurable snow is further
south. They have a 60 to 80% chance of 1 inch of snow occurring
as far south as the Interstate 90 corridor. Meanwhile, the other
51% members of the ensemble are more aggressive with the
eastward movement of this system and they show that these 60-80%
probabilities for these 1 inch or higher totals more toward the
Interstate 94 corridor and north. While there are differences
on the southern extent of the measurable snow, the 10th and 90th
percentiles on snow totals remains the same throughout the
Grand Ensemble ranging from 1 to 4 inches (highest north of
Wisconsin 29) in north-central Wisconsin.

As the surface pressure gradient tightens on the back and strong
cold air advection steepens the low-level lapse rates, strong
sustained winds and gusts will develop Tuesday night and
continue into Wednesday morning. 75% of the Grand Ensemble has
40-60% probability of seeing wind gusts of 40 mph or greater.
There is one cluster (25% of the members) which has a 60-80% of
its members with winds at 40 mph or greater. It makes sense
because that ensemble had the strongest solutions.

Thanksgiving

During the Thanksgiving Day, some cyclonic flow will remain
aloft during the morning and then the ridge will build across
the area during the afternoon. If there are flurries on this
day, they would be mainly in central and north-central
Wisconsin.

High temperatures have cooled even more from yesterday. They
now range from mid-20s to around 30. This is 5 to 15 degrees
colder than normal. These temperatures will be similar to last
Thanksgiving (November 28) when we had high temperatures in the
mid- and upper 20s.

Low temperatures will range from the mid-teens to lower 20s.
This is 5 to 10 degrees colder than normal. These low
temperatures are very similar to last Thanksgiving when we had
low temperatures in the mid-teens.

With northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, wind chills will start
the day in the single digits and range from 10 to 20 degrees
during the day.

Black Friday into Saturday

The models are in fairly good agreement that a shortwave trough
of the western side of the ridge axis will produce a band of
warm air advection snow across the area. 65% of these members
show a weaker system and as result their snow totals are
generally in the 1 to 3 inch range (10th to 90th percentiles).
35% of the Grand Ensemble show a much stronger shortwave trough
this results in more advisory snows in the 3 to 6 inch range
(10th to 90th percentiles).

High temperatures on Black Friday will range from the mid-20s to
around 30. This is 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal. During
last year`s Black Friday (November 29), high temperatures ranged
from mid- teens to mid-20s. During 5 out of the last 7 Black
Fridays, high temperatures have been in the 20s and 30s.

Low temperatures will range from 10 to 20 degrees. This will be 10
to 15 degrees colder than normal. During last year`s Black Friday,
we had low temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 degrees. During the
past 4 out 5 Black Fridays, low temperatures have ranged from 5 to
15 degrees.

With west and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, the wind chills will
be very close to the actual air temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light rain will continue to move into northeast Iowa early this
afternoon then spread into southeast Minnesota and southwestern
Wisconsin later this afternon. As the rain moves northeastward,
visibilities will drop into the MVFR to IFR range. CIGS also
remain in the MVFR to IFR categories, however much of the region
could dip into the LIFR CIG category particularly during the
overnight period. South to southwest winds between 5 and 15 mph
through the TAF period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava