337
FXUS63 KARX 142356
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
556 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures today with highs in the mid to
  upper 60s to near 70 degrees for some locations.

- Low chance of rain showers (20 to 30%) north of I-94 Saturday
  morning as a cold front moves through the area. Near normal
  temperatures for much of next week with highs in the 40s.

- Rain and snow showers possible (30 to 60%) for Monday night
  into Tuesday morning, especially for areas along and south of
  I-90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today-Saturday: Above Normal Temperatures, Mostly Dry

Shortwave ridging is over the area today. Good warm air advection is
currently occurring with 25 to 35 kt southwest winds at 850mb. With
surface winds out of the south to southwest and mostly clear skies,
high temperatures are overperforming similar to yesterday. KRST
actually is forecasted to tie their record high today of 68 degrees
that was set in 1990! KLSE`s record high is 71 degrees and while
temperatures are overperforming, this temperatures is not expected
to met today. Most of the CWA will see high temperatures in the mid
to upper 60s with some locations in the low 70s!

These warm temperatures are not here to stay unfortunately as a cold
front will move down through the region on Saturday morning. This
will bring northwest winds for the day as well as a brief shot of
light rain showers (20 to 30%), mainly north of I-94, however a
shower can not be ruled out for areas south towards I-90.
Temperatures for Saturday will be in he lot to mid 50s for areas
along and north of I-94, the mid to upper 50s for most other
locations, with some low 60s in far southwestern Wisconsin and
portions of northeast Iowa.

Sunday-Friday: Precipitation Chances?, Near Normal Temperatures

While shortwave ridging returns for Sunday and lingers through
midweek, a shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge on Monday
night into Tuesday morning and moves into the Plains and then the
Upper Midwest. Something to note is that this wave has shifted
further north compared to previous forecasts, bringing increased
precipitation chances further north into our CWA. Current NBM PoP
forecast largely has a 30 to 60% chance for precipitation for most
areas except for locations north of I-94 which has values closer to
20 to 40%. Timing for this wave is important due to the overnight
lows being below freezing as this would mean snow would be falling
instead of rain if this were to fall during the day. If any snow
falls, then accumulations would be light. This is reflected in the
LREF grand ensemble probability of snow greater than 0.1"
(measurable snow), which has a 30 to 40% chance mainly or areas
along and south of I-90.

The rest of the day Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with the
ridging overhead. Ensemble and deterministic data are then
beginning to show increased precipitation chances for later
next week on Thursday and Friday. Still too far out to get a
good handle on this potential system but the main takeaway is
that there is some potential for precipitation later next week
and we will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Winds are the main aviation concern for the duration of the TAF
period. A cold front will move through the region early
Saturday morning, veering our currently southerly winds to the
northwest. A strong low level wind field of 40-50kts from the
southwest will exist over the region ahead of this front
overnight per RAP/HRRR soundings, leading to the threat of LLWS.
Opted to add LLWS to the KLSE TAF with this issuance given the
potential associated with these strong low level winds, but
there is some uncertainty whether low level turbulence will be
realized instead. Valley locations will be the most likely to
observe LLWS overnight while those in elevated or flatter
locations (such as KRST) are more likely to observe low level
turbulence. Otherwise, northwest winds will persist through the
day Saturday, gusting 20-30kts at times in the afternoon.

Outside of the winds, VFR conditions are expected with ceilings
of mid to high cloud overnight into Saturday morning, clearing
west to east through the day. There is also a low potential for
a few scattered showers to develop Saturday morning as the cold
front moves through the region (10-30%), highest north of I-94.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Falkinham