864
FXUS63 KARX 141734
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1134 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unusually warm today. High temperatures will be 15 to 20
  degrees warmer than normal.

- Due to a faster frontal passage, high temperatures were cooled
  into the lower to mid-50s north of Interstate 90 on Saturday.

- Kept a small chance of rain showers north of Interstate 94 on
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today

Southwest winds aloft ahead an approaching trough will bring
anomalous warmth into the region for today. 925 mb temperatures
will range from 12 to 17C. As this warm air mixes toward the
surface, high temperatures will range from the mid-50s to
mid-60s. These temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
normal.

Late Tonight into Saturday

A cold front will approach the area tonight and move through the
area on Saturday morning. The NBM had the area dry. From looking
at soundings, there appears to be enough low level moisture for
a chance of showers north of Interstate 94. With the CAMs in
agreement with this, a 20-30 percent chance of showers were
added to the forecast. With this front moving through the area
sooner in the day, temperatures were lowered north of
Interstate 90. High temperatures will be in the lower and
mid-50s north of Interstate 90 and range from the mid-50s to
mid-60s elsewhere.

Monday and Monday night

The models are in general agreement that a 500 mb trough will
be moving out of the Central Plains into either the Mid or Upper
Mississippi River. This impacts the northern extent of the
precipitation in the area. 78% of the grand ensemble have the
precipitation primarily south of Interstate 90. The remainder
members have precipitation across the area. Temperatures at this
time will be cool enough that it could be a rain and snow mix.
Any snow amounts look to be on the light side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Southerly winds today transition to
southwest this evening then shift to the northwest Saturday
morning as a cold front moves through the region. Prior to the
cold front passage, wind shear may be possible during the late
evening and early overnight period as 30 to 40 kt southwest to
west winds will be just above the surface while lighter
southwest to south winds will be at the surface. Did not mention
this in the TAF as the confidence is not quite there at this
moment. Light rain showers possible with the front, especially
north of I-94, Saturday morning. CIGS stay above 20kft until
Saturday morning when they dip down between 10kft and 15kft.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava