104
FXUS63 KARX 041152
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
552 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers continue through Thursday with additional rainfall
  amounts under 1/2" generally expected.

- Drier and cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and into
  the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will
  trend above normal into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today - Thursday: On and Off Showers Continue

Continued rainfall is likely through Thursday as an upper-level
closed low begins to manifest across the Upper Midwest as
deterministic guidance suggests that this feature will slowly
progress eastward over the next couple of days. As a result, the
grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has very high
probabilities (50-90%) for measurable rainfall during any 6-hr
through Friday morning. Overall given the fairly weak forcing with
the surface low overhead and the southerly moisture plume to our
east, thinking that additional precipitation amounts should be on
the lighter side with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble)
only having medium probabilities (20-50%) for rainfall amounts over
0.5" for today through Thursday. In any case, with the frontal
passage associated with the low pressure center moving through the
region, temperatures will be noticeably cooler through Thursday with
highs in the 40s and 50s.

Friday - Sunday: Drier and Cooler

By the time Friday and the weekend rolls around, the upper-level low
responsible for much of our showery pattern this week pushes into
the eastern Great Lakes and allows for shortwave upper-level ridging
to move into the Upper Midwest. Consequently, expecting skies to
begin to clear late Friday and into Saturday. As a result, overnight
lows will likely fall into the 20s for much of the region by
Saturday morning with surface high pressure building into the
region. However, in response to the upper-level ridging, would
expect temperatures to gradually warm with highs returning in to the
lower to middle 50s.

Early Next Week:

As we head into early next week, zonal to northwesterly flow with
weak upper-level ridging for Monday will allow for some additional
warming with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. However, as flow
continues to turn more zonal to quasi-northwesterly, temperatures
will likely remain steady-state, being slightly above normal.
Additionally, with the absence of any profound shortwave troughing
during this timeframe, the NBM unsurprisingly has minimal
precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Temporary reprieve in widespread precipitation expected through
the early morning hours, shortly after 04.12Z TAF issuance. Low
center evident on radar imagery over southeast Minnesota expect
to shift east through today, advecting precipitation chances
east through the area with it. Precipitation potential persists
through much of Wednesday. Therefore, have returned IFR/LIFR
impacts at both TAF sites through much of the 04.12Z TAF
period.

Confidence in MVFR impacts eventually increases after the 04.12Z
TAF terminus through Thursday morning. However, MVFR/IFR
impacts may linger through Thursday with eventual confidence for
VFR not until Friday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAR