711
FXUS63 KARX 251114
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
514 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers today, transitioning to snow overnight into
  Wednesday. Snow accumulations most likely north of I-90
  (60-90%) with the highest amounts expected in Taylor County.

- Gusty winds are expected tonight into Wednesday. Gusts of 45
  mph are possible, highest west of the Mississippi River.

- Mild temperatures continue today, becoming much colder
  Wednesday through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Periodic Showers Today Transitioning to Snow Overnight

A potent 500hPa shortwave trough ejects into the northern Great
Plains today, sparking strong surface cyclogenesis that will
eventually shift eastward into the Great Lakes region, moving
through tonight into Wednesday. Periodic showers are possible
throughout the day today (20-60%), most probable north of I-90,
within a weak 925-850hPa warm air advection regime as the
surface low and associated frontal system move into the region,
providing enough lift within the saturated low levels for
scattered precipitation. Shower potential increases this evening
(60-90%) along a cold front before a quick transition to snow
occurs tonight as strong cold air advection forces thermal
profiles below freezing within the deformation zone. As a
result, snowfall is expected for most tonight through Wednesday
morning, although accumulations are expected mainly for areas
along and north of I-90. However, there has been a southward
trend of this system over the past 24 hours which has shifted
the potential for higher snowfall amounts into our area.

The 25.01z NBM and 24.12z LREF ensembles now suggest 60-90%
probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snow for much of the
area although they maintain the highest probabilities generally
along and north of I-90. The most notable increase in snowfall
probabilities and subsequent amounts is across Taylor County
where probabilities for greater than 4 inches of snow now sit at
60-80% (as compared to 20-40% 24 hours ago), likely associated
with strong 800hPa frontogenesis situated of north-central
Wisconsin as the main surface low moves through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. If the southward trend continues,
these higher snowfall amounts may become more likely across more
of the region. Overall, a general 1-3 inches is expected for
areas along and north of I-90 with 2 to 5 inches possible in in
Taylor County.

Gusty Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday

A tightened pressure  gradient associated with the
aforementioned surface low, most notable on its western side,
will increase the low level wind field as it moves through the
region tonight into Wednesday. 925-850hPa winds increase to
around 50-60kts which combined with cold air advection on the
backside of the cold front should allow for efficient momentum
transfer of these strong low level winds to the surface, leading
to gusts of 40-45 mph across much of the region. The potential
for these strong winds is highlighted in both the 25.00z HREF
and 24.12z LREF which indicate 40-70% probabilities for 45 mph
gusts. The strongest winds are expected west of the Mississippi
River and begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Given a lack of snowpack and lower snow totals for areas that
are expected to see these stronger winds, not anticipating
widespread impacts from blowing snow although some visibility
restrictions may be noted at times. If the southward trend
continues however, visibility restrictions and overall travel
impacts will become more of a concern.

Mild Today Then Much Colder

Mild temperatures continue today under southerly flow. High
temperatures reach into the upper 40s to low 50s for most.
However, these don`t linger for long as the strong cold air
advection behind the surface low knocks temperatures down nearly
20 degrees by Wednesday, only reaching into the upper 20s to
low 30s. These cold temperatures Wednesday combined with the
previously mentioned gusty winds will lead to apparent
temperatures in the teens.

Highs through much of the week will struggle to break 30F with
very little spread in the 10th-90th percentiles of the 25.00z EC
Ens and GEFS through Sunday, leading to high confidence in the
current temperature forecast. More variation is introduced early
next week, although the general consensus of the EPS/GEFS
indicates temperatures are favored to remain below freezing,
which is also highlighted in the 25.01z NBM mean.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions are currently present across the region
as a mixture of light showers, drizzle, and fog are impacting
the terminals. This should continue for the coming hours with
fog gradually dissipating by late morning with visibilities
likely lifting back to MVFR/IFR (some high end LIFR may linger
even longer for portions of SE Minnesota and NE Iowa). CIGs
will likely stay in the IFR/LIFR range through tonight before
gradually improving to MVFR by late in the period. Light rain is
expected for much of the afternoon with some brief lulls
possible this evening ahead of the next round of precipitation.
Precipitation tonight will become a rain/snow mix with cooler
air filtering into the area before turning to all snow later
overnight. Visibilities with this precipitation will likely need
to be adjusted going forward but have left them in the MVFR/IFR
range as this seems reasonable for now. South/southwesterly
winds this morning are expected to pick up through the
afternoon, becoming more westerly by 00Z Wednesday. Winds will
continue to increase after 00Z, peaking between 06-12Z with
gusts of 35-40 kts out of the northwest likely.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ061.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
     WIZ017.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Barendse