716
FXUS63 KARX 251913
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather (damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes)
  possible this afternoon evening, and maybe another round
  overnight.

- Heavy rain expected through tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-3
  inches are expected with localized totals of 3-5 inches. Due
  to this a Flood Watch has been issued through 7 AM Thursday.

- River flood watches has been issued for several rivers and
  creeks in the area. Minor to moderate flooding is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This afternoon and early evening

Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon is starting to show
some breaks in the clouds south of Interstate 90. As the afternoon
progresses, a differential heating area is expected to develop south
of Interstate 90 across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
This will allow surface-based CAPES to climb into the 1-3K J/kg
range. The effective shear along the Interstate 90 corridor is
expected to climb to around 40 knots. This could potentially
result in some supercells. However, the most likely storm
structure will be organized/bowing clusters of storms capable of
damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We have
been in coordination with the Storm Prediction Center about
extending the slight risk further east into southwest and
central Wisconsin.

With precipitable water values around 2.25 inches, warm-cloud depths
over 4 km, and moderate to strong 850 mb moisture advection into the
region through tonight, the showers and storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 25.12z HREF continues to suggest that
the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rain through tonight and the
localized probability-matched mean suggest the potential for 3 to 5
inches. Due to this, a Flood Watch for the risk of flash flooding
has been issued for this afternoon and tonight.

Late tonight and Thursday

A mesoscale complex will move out of Nebraska this evening and move
through areas south of Interstate 94 late tonight. This could
potentially result in another area of strong winds moving east
through the area. This will result in pushing a front south into
central Iowa and northern Illinois. This front will then move back
north as a warm front on Thursday. Overall, the best 850 mb moisture
transport is east of the area. As a result, there may be a brief
threat of damaging winds and heavy rain during the afternoon and by
early evening this threat should be east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A warm front will move north into the Interstate 94 corridor
early this afternoon. As this occurs, the IFR/MVFR ceilings
and visibility`s south of this front will become VFR. This
should occur at the TAF sites within the next 2 hours. The
airmass south of this front will destabilize by mid afternoon,
this will result in several line segments moving east through
the area through early evening. The main severe weather threat
will be wet microbursts. There will a brief 3 to 4 hour break
and then another line of storms will move through the region
during the overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

With precipitable water values around 2.25 inches, warm-cloud depths
over 4 km, and moderate to strong 850 mb moisture advection into the
region through tonight, the showers and storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 25.12z HREF continues to suggest that
the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rain through tonight and the
localized probability-matched mean suggest the potential for 3 to 5
inches. Due to this, a Flood Watch for the potential of Flash
Flooding was issued earlier this morning. This watch is in effect
through 7 AM Thursday for all of southeast Minnesota, southwest and
central Wisconsin, and much of northeast Iowa.

River flood watches have been issued for portions of the Black
(minor to moderate flooding possible), Kickapoo (minor to moderate
flooding possible), and Yellow rivers (minor flooding possible) in
western Wisconsin, Cedar River at Charles City (potential for minor
flooding) in northeast Iowa, and Turtle Creek (potential for minor
flooding) in southeast Minnesota. These forecasts were based on 48-
hour rainfall forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

La Crosse

Daily rainfall records

June 25 - 1.65 inches in 2010
June 26 - 2.77 inches in 2021

June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011

Rochester

Daily rainfall records

June 25 - 4.18 inches in 1913 (3rd highest for JUne)
June 26 - 2.00 inches in 1941

June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055.
MN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IAZ008>011.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne