147
FXUS63 KARX 020538
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through midweek with a slow warming
  trend.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday while temperatures
  continue their warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today - Wednesday: Dry and Warmer

The string of pleasant weather is set to continue over the next
couple of days. As the omega block responsible for our recent
string of dry weather starts to break down, the associated
surface high will gradually drop south into the Great Lakes
region into Wednesday, keeping conditions nice and dry across
the area. Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend with weak
shortwave ridging aloft. Highs both days should generally hold
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Thursday - Early Next Week: Shower/Storm Chances Return, Warmer Still

The recent dry trend is expected to finally come to a close by
Thursday with a more active pattern looking to take over for the
end of week/weekend timeframe. As the aforementioned surface
high drops to our south and the shortwave ridging collapses,
west to southwest flow aloft will come to prevail. The low on
the west side of the previous omega block is expected to move
east just north of the US/Canada border Wednesday into Thursday
with a weak surface low expected to form across Western Ontario,
near the International Falls region. While the cold front that
extends from this surface low is not expected to be particularly
strong, it will be more than enough to provide a focus for
shower and thunderstorm development. Gulf moisture will be on a
large upswing across the Upper Midwest by late in the week with
strong south/southwesterly low/mid level return flow on the back
side of the departing high across the eastern seaboard.
Precipitable water values along and ahead of the boundary will
be pushing 150-200% of normal for this time of year (1.5+
inches). Due to the high moisture content for these showers and
storms, the Weather Prediction Center has already included our
area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday
and Friday. As the upper low tapers off, the boundary looks to
potentially stall out across the region. Where this ultimately
stalls out will provide a great focus for convection Friday and
potentially into the weekend but there is still ample
uncertainty in regards to the nature of that boundary.

There also looks to be some low potential for severe weather
Friday. A shortwave trough is expected to move through the Upper
Midwest Friday into Saturday (after 00Z Saturday for the
Driftless Region). With our area currently forecast to still be
south of the frontal boundary, 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE could
develop by Friday afternoon. Shear overall doesn`t look
particularly impressive for our area (20- 30 kts) as the better
shear looks to be co-located with the shortwave passage. Machine
learning guidance tends to keep the severe risk area to our
west where the shortwave will be able to interact more readily
with the ample instability but if the timing of this shortwave
is quicker than current forecasts, that area could shift east.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the coming days.
Otherwise, expect warm temperatures in the 80s to continue
through the week with a slow climb towards the weekend as upper
level ridging sets up and anomalously warm 850 mb temps start to
work their way into the region. Temperatures by the weekend
could start flirting with the 90 degree mark, even with the
continued, albeit low, rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

East to southeast winds of 10KT or less are expected overnight,
becoming predominantly southeast Tuesday morning while FEW-SCT
high clouds passes overhead, although may vary BKN at times west
of the Mississippi River. VFR conditions are expected to
persist through Thursday, when potential for reductions
increases.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Falkinham