091
FXUS63 KARX 122310
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
610 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers tonight (50-80%) - highest
likelihood north of I-90. Low end QPF for most (1/10 to 1/4").

- Periodic rain chances then for the latter half of the week.

- Mostly at/above normal temps through the new week. Coolest days
Tue/Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

GEFS and EPS remain in good agreement with keeping the upper level
flow rather progressive, moving shortwave troughs/ridges west to
east across the CONUS - influencing the upper mississippi river
valley for about 2 days before swapping out trough for ridge,
ridge for trough, etc. The pattern favors periodic rain chances
along with temps at/above the seasonable normals (but with a fair
amount of variance).


> RAIN CHANCES: band of north-south running showers across
MN/northern IA continue to lift northeast at early afternoon -
relating to a weak upper level shortwave and mid level Fgen. While
deeper saturation is aiding the pcpn along the northern portions of
showers, the southern fetch is falling out of a mid deck, having to
work through a dry sub cloud layer. With the deeper lift continuing
on the northeast tack the CAMS suggest the southern extent will
decrease aerially and in intensity. Reasonable in this set up.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Precipitation chances and any
accompanying aviation impacts wane through Monday morning.
Subsequent potential precipitation (20-50%) and aviation impacts
Tuesday through Wednesday.

Moving into late afternoon/early evening and then for the rest of
the night the same CAMS suggest a few bands of showers will develop,
responding to low level moisture transport and sloping Fgen. Another
shortwave trough will add to the mix, but likely only influences
northern reaches of the region as it spins over northern MN into
southern Canada. Low level saturation on the increase starting this
evening. So while the preponderance of the lift will be related to the
front, it will have saturation to work with. PWs push 1 1/2" with
NAEFS PW anomalies +2 to +3. That said, the lift isn`t strong, nor
necessarily deep, and QPF in short term models hold rainfall in
check as a result. The HREF paints 40-60% for greater than 1/10"
north of I-94 with only 20-30% chances to exceed 1/4". QPF less
south of I-90. CAMS continue to suggest a very cellular nature to
the pcpn (much like current radar trends), so locally higher amounts
could be realized if a location receives a few rounds from perkier
showers. Little if any instability and thunder threat looks low to
none as a result.

After tonight more light rain chances could work into the area Tue
as weak ripples in the upper level try to work under developing
ridging. A consistent signal in the models although how widespread
resulting chances would be is in question. Not much for moisture
return/transport with the more favorable, moist airmass holding
south/west. QPF isn`t much locally as a result with 25-50% to exceed
1/10" per the LREF.

Again, progressive (aka, active) weather pattern through the weekend
with more rain chances. These are more likely to be tied to
stronger, synoptic scale systems - with broader areal coverage and
more QPF. Will hold with the model blend for the details.


> TEMPERATURES: cold front pushes east across the local area Monday
morning with 850 mb temps set to fall from as warm as 14 C at 12z
Mon to 5 C by 12z Wed. Highs Tue/Wed shaping up to be the coolest of
the week as a result with LREF probabilities suggesting 10 to 50%
chances to warm above 60. All in all though, that still sits close
to the mid Oct normals. Temps then rebound as upper level ridging
becomes the main weather influence. At least 50% of the GEFS and EPS
members paint mid 60s to around 70 for highs Thu into Sat. High end
outliers (upper 5%) hint that some low 70s could be reached for a
few locations. No widespread frosts through the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Scattered light
showers are moving east/northeast across the Upper Midwest with
a more organized line of showers approaching the I-35 corridor
around 23Z. This is expected to continue to build east,
impacting the terminals in the coming hours. Upstream obs have
not shown any categorical reductions with these showers so have
left conditions VFR with this approaching activity. Could see
some brief reductions to MVFR in both CIGs and visibilities in
the stronger cores but confidence has decreased in this
occurring with time. Have generally based timing on the CONShort
as this seems to have the best handle on the expected evolution
of this line. Showers should exit to the east of the terminals
after 09Z with skies clearing from the west in the hours
following. Some LLWS will be possible at the LSE terminal this
evening through 06Z as surface gusts have largely failed to come
to fruition. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest
fairly quickly in the wake of a cold front pushing through
overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. From there,
north/northwesterly winds will prevail at around 10 kts into the
afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Barendse