978
AXNT20 KNHC 121017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of
organization along a tropical wave located over the central
Atlantic along 38W-39W. An associated 1011 mb low center is
located near 11N36.5W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development over the next few days and a tropical
depression will likely form within a couple of days while the
system moves W to W-NW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical
Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the
next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, and is
along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 08N to 12.5N
between 20W and 24.5W.

See the Special Features section above for information on a
tropical wave along 38W-39W. Low pressure near 11N36.5W
associated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical
depression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 33.5W and 38.5W

The axis of a tropical wave is along 59W extending southward from
18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 11N to 18N between 56W and 61.5W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 71W S of 22N, crossing
Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is occurring over Hispaniola and the adjacent
coastal waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 87W, S of 21N, extending
through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern
Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N and W of 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.50N17W and
extends to 11.5N22W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N36.5W to 10.5N52W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between
24W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Western Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge along 27N-28N,
across Florida and into the N Gulf waters, where a 1019 mb high is
found near 27.5N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and has triggered scattered moderate convection over the
eastern half of the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Light winds
prevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the current ridge extends across the northern
Gulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This
pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each
evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
impacting the basin.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the
area along 27N-28N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated
rough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Mainly
moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient induced by the Atlantic
ridge to the north will continue to support fresh to strong
trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night.
The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave
entering the eastern Caribbean Wed night, leading to a
significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the
central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may
increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat
night.

Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of
improved organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter
half of this week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches
the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27.5N50W, and extending from 25W to
Florida. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and
west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are noted S of 24N, with moderate seas. Overnight
satellite scatterometer winds showed broad cyclonic winds between
30W and 40W about Invest AL92, with pockets of winds 20-25 kt.
Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this area. Offshore Africa, fresh to
locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 19N then
become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft
prevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much
of the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge will
sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri
night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from
E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical
wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and
in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong
speeds each night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are
showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will
likely form during the latter half of this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

$$
Stripling