041
AXNT20 KNHC 172317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the Africa continent. The
ITCZ extends westward from offshore of Sierra Leone to 06N30W to
09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 09N between 15W and 46W, and from 08N to 11N between
46W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front crosses the NE Gulf, and extends from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to 29N87W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond
southern Mississippi. A few showers are seen near this feature.
A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Mainly patches
of low level clouds, with possible showers, are associated with
this system. Otherwise, a weak high pressure of 1015 mb located
near 27N88W dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this weather
pattern, scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate SE to S winds
over the western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. Slight seas
dominate most of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the weak cold front over the northeast Gulf will
stall overnight then dissipate. High pressure over the southeastern
U.S. and north of the front will shift into the western Atlantic
Tue, ahead of a weak cold that will stall then dissipate over the
southern Plains. This pattern will support mostly moderate E to
SE winds across the basin through mid week, with occasional fresh
southerly flow over the northwest and north-central Gulf. Looking
ahead, another weak cold front will move into the northwest and
north-central Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1012 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of Youth,
Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from the
low center eastward toward eastern Cuba where is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted on the NW quadrant of the low center based on
scatterometer data. A few showers, with embedded thunderstorms
are affecting the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 2 ft exist for the remainder of the western Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms near the aforementioned
low pressure will diminish overnight as the low pressure weakens
to a trough, moves into the Yucatan Channel Tue, and dissipates
Wed. This pattern is resulting in weaker than normal trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean Tue, except for off Colombia.
High pressure will build north of the area off the Carolinas by
mid week, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. A few
showers are along the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are ahead of the front affecting the waters N of 29N between 60W
and 77W. Rough seas, in long period NW swell, follow the front.
Farther E, a stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N33W,
and extends SW to near 26N45W. Scattered showers are associated
with the front. Rough seas, in long period NW swell also follow
the front. The remainder of the east and central Atlantic are
under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure located NW of the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades, and moderate to rough seas
dominate the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 50W. A surface trough
remains E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W. An area of fresh
to strong winds is observed near the northern end of the trough
axis covering the waters from 14N to 17N between 54W and 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall Tue from
around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos before dissipating Wed. NW
swell reaching 8 to 10 ft may persist north of 28N and east of
70W through Tue. High pressure will build behind the front between
the Carolinas and Bermuda Wed through Fri, supporting gentle breezes
and slight seas north of 25N and moderate winds and seas farther
south. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast
Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak moving through the
southeast U.S.

$$
GR