634
AXNT20 KNHC 252344 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1008 mb area of low
pressure is near 12N23.5W, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and is producing scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 08.5N 14N between 24W and 29W. Peak winds
are near 25 kt with seas to 7 ft in the vicinity of the low.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions could become less conducive for development by the
weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 06N-21N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 08.5N 14N between 24W and 29W.
This system is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W south of 17N, moving
westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring
in association with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with
this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N
to Cost Rica, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N between
80W and 87W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
is across the Eastern Tropical Pacific from 04N to 09N E of 90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to the 1008 mb low at 12N23.5W, then westward to 13N41W to
12N47W. The ITCZ begins at 12N47W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N-13N between 31W-40W and from
11N-14N between 40W-51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Northerly middle level winds across the northern Gulf coast
continue to push scattered moderate isolated strong convection
across northern portions of the Gulf, southward to the area from
25N to 29N between 85W and 93W. The most intense convection there
is occurring across SE Louisiana and the adjacent coastal waters.
A weak 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N94W,
contributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-3 ft
this afternoon. A surface trough extends from a frontal system in
central Georgia, southwestward through the central Florida
Panhandle to 25N88W, while a second trough is across the central
Bay of Campeche. Modest convection accompanies both of these
troughs.

For the forecast, weak and broad high pressure will dominate the
basin through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming
weekend with mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.
Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh with locally moderate seas
offshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due
to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the 1020 mb Bermuda High near
29N67W and the 1006 mb Colombian Low is forcing an expanding area
of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, from south
of Jamaica and Hispaniola to South America, where seas are 6 to 9
ft, and to 10 ft along the NE coast of Colombia. Elsewhere winds
are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N west of 80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will
support fresh to strong winds south of 18N through the next
several days, along with rough seas. Winds will pulse to minimal
gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off northern Colombia
during the next couple of evenings with locally very rough seas.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will dominate
the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas in the NW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to fresh near
the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, low pressure, Invest AL96,
in the eastern Atlantic, has the potential to develop into a
tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to portions
of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL96, and the tropical wave that emerged off
the coast of Africa yesterday.

A 1029 mb Azores High is centered north of our waters a 41N40W.
The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high and
lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only forcing
moderate trades across the Tropical Atlantic west of 35W, with
seas 4-7 ft. A middle Atlantic upper-level trough north of the
Greater Antilles along about 60W is forcing scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection north of 21N between 57W-62W.

East of 35W, a cold front is approaching the area from the north,
along 31N, and has squashed the ridge that has dominated that area
in recent days. Winds extending from the Canary Islands to north
of the Cabo Verdes are only moderate to fresh N of 16N and E of
35W, with seas of 5-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated deep layered trough
from north of the area southward along about 61W will continue to
support showers and thunderstorms over the waters north of 20N
between 55W and 61W through at Thu. Moderate high pressure
dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N through the
remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
south of 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the
northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far
southern waters into the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure,
Invest AL96, in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop
into a tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to
portions of the southeast waters by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Stripling