961
AXNT20 KNHC 060936
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Its
axis is along 17W S of 15N. The Howmoller Diagram indicates the
westward propagation of this system. The TPW also shows the
presence of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is near the
southern end of the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is near 30W, south of 13N moving W at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between
25W and 34W.

Another tropical wave is along 54W, south of 13N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
evident from 02N to 10N between 47W and 58W.

A tropical wave is now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along
63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave
appears to enhance convection over portions of eastern Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its
axis is along 80W, south of 18N into the EPAC region. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the
northern portion of the wave axis and just south of Jamaica to
about 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western
Africa near 12.5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N28W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W
where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 04N W of 48W. Additional convection across the area
is related to the above mentioned tropical waves.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United
States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle
to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to
fresh winds in the Straits of Florida and to the N and W of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind
speeds. An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted over the SW
Gulf, particularly S of 22.5N and W of 94W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
promoting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf
and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through
at least early next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to
pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Slight
to moderate seas are expected.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details.

High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low
supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas
across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW
Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted per recent
scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are
blowing in the Gulf of Honduras with moderate seas. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring just south of
Jamaica, and in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level
clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate
seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge
north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin
to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into
Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the
pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad
area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of
Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more details.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front.
High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western
Atlantic follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1028
mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 34N33W. Under the influence
of this feature, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is seen N
of 20N E of front to about 25W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 25W, including the
Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between
the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will continue to dissipate today. A surface trough will linger and
drift westward through Mon night. Then, a cold front will reach the
northern forecast waters on Tue, and move southward to near 27N by
Tue night. This weather pattern will support gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas into early next week.

$$
GR