667
AXNT20 KNHC 160931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 39W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 09N to 13N between
44W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 80W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is ahead of the wave axis over the Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and western Panama offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 05N38W and then from 04N40W to
04N49W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 10N
between 12W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
07N between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic into the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and
seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m) west of 90W and off northern Yucatan.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker SE winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms with likely gusty
winds and rough seas are ongoing offshore Veracruz being supported
by abundant moisture and mid-level divergence.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending across most of the basin from the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night.
Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast
to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered by a 1026 mb high near 29N45W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW
Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m). The strongest winds and seas are
noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate
seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where winds are
gentle to moderate. Otherwise, a tropical wave with axis along 80W
is supporting heavy showers offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica and
western Panama. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing
within this area of convection.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters, extending from a 1026 mb high pressure near
29N45W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great
Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshores. The passage
of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed between
45W and the Lesser Antilles with 7-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and 7-8 ft seas are ongoing between the NW coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere
along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered showers
are over the Dominican Republic offshores.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night through the middle of the week as the
Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail
offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface
trough extending along the eastern United States. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through the week.

$$
Ramos