391
AXNT20 KNHC 171634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 10N between 15W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 12N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the tropical wave at this time.

Another tropical wave is along 53W, south of 12N, moving westward
at around 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the
wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from the coast of Panama north to 14N between 76W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The MONSOON TROUGH enters the Atlantic Ocean near Dakar, Senegal,
and continues to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 06N38W,
resuming near 06N42W then terminating at 05N51W. Scattered showers
are along the ITCZ. Other convection is described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers are evident in the Bay of Campeche near a
surface trough and along the north-central Gulf coast. Otherwise,
strong ridging continues to dominate the Gulf waters, providing
gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean and
active convection.

The strong subtropical Atlantic ridge continues to force fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean, with 7-10 ft seas.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail.
In addition to the areas described in the TROPICAL WAVES section,
scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 65W and
71W in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Sat night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras
through Thu while expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds.
Rough seas are likely in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions
of the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the Atlantic.

The expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire
tropical Atlantic basin. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast south of 24N through Sat night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States.

$$
Mahoney