063
AXNT20 KNHC 051030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event over the Western and Central Atlantic:
Large northerly swell generated by hurricane force winds
associated with previous Tropical Cyclones Imelda and Humberto in
the northern Atlantic continue to propagate south of 31N into the
western and central Atlantic. As indicated by recent altimeter
data, this swell event is still creating seas of 12 to 14 ft N of
24N and W of 50W. Seas 8 ft or greater continue to cover a large
area, roughly N of 12N,and W of 28W to the Bahamas and Florida
coastal waters. In addition, this swell event will continue to
sustain dangerous surf conditions, significant beach erosion and
probable local coastal inundation along the east-facing shores of
Georgia and Florida, the north and east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, and the north-facing shores across Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Refer to your local
weather agencies for the latest statements.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 17N
southward. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Recent satellite-
derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure,
associated with this tropical wave, has formed several hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and is analyzed near
07.5N26.5W at 1011 mb. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and it could become a
tropical depression by the middle to latter part of this week
while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching
portions of the Leeward Islands. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is currently seen from 05.5N to 12.5N
between 24W and 32W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within
the next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 07N to 11N between 44W and 50W.

Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 58W
from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1011 mb low
pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm north of the low.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 18.5N16W, then
curves southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure located near
07.5N26.5W to 09.5N38W. No well defined ITCZ is analyzed west of
this area at this time. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 08W and 20W, and from
07N to 13N between 39W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An old stationary front lingers from the central Bahamas through
the Straits of Florida then continues northwestward to 1009 mb low
pressure near 26.5N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring along and north of this frontal boundary and extend into
the Gulf coastal waters from SE Louisiana to offshore of Tampa
Bay. The low pressure system is expected to move slowly
northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the coast of
Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not expected due to
strong upper-level winds. North of the stationary front, fresh to
strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are present from the
Florida Big bend to the coastal waters offshore of Houston. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over
the Bay of Campeche and the NE Yucatan Peninsula in association
to an upper level trough over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are
expected north of 27N through late Sun morning as a tight
pressure gradient persists between high pressure to the N and a
stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to 1009 mb
low pressure near 26.5N92W. The front and low will lift northward
today, allowing for winds and seas to diminish over the northern
basin. Looking ahead, high pressure will begin to build modestly
across the entire Gulf basin by late Mon leading to moderate E to
SE winds and slight to moderate seas early next week, with locally
fresh winds possible in the northeastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea, supporting
moderate trades across the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in N swell are noted across
the NE Atlantic passages, including the Mona and Anegada
Passages. An upper-level low is spinning across Hispaniola and
western Puerto Rico, with an upper-level trough extending to
northern Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
recently ended south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A mid level
trough is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection
over the western Caribbean, south of 17.5N and west of 79W.

For the forecast, large N to NE swell will continue to produce rough
seas over the waters E of the Lesser Antilles and through the
Atlantic Passages through Sun night before seas gradually subside
early next week. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds will persist
across the south-central basin, and moderate E to SE winds will
pulse fresh to strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Honduras, each night through the middle of the upcoming
week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure associated with
a tropical wave has formed several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and it could become a tropical
depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of
the Leeward Islands by Thu. This system has a medium chance of
tropical development within the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large swell event continues to propagate across the west and
central Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for
more information.

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N43W and
extends southwestward to 24N70W then westward to a 1011 mb low in
the central Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along and within 180 nm N of the frontal
boundary, more concentrated NE of the central Bahamas. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are N of the frontal boundary and W of 55W.
Rough to very rough seas of 8 to 14 ft in northerly swell,
dominate the regional waters north of 12N between 28W and the
Florida coastal waters. High pressure dominates the western
Atlantic north of the front, centered on a 1025 mb high just
offshore the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. Farther east, an
upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 15N to 23N between 49W and 53W. Another upper level trough
is generating some moderate shower activity north of 26N between
21W and 25W. Gentle to moderate trade winds are observed over the
tropical Atlantic south and east of the front. Fresh to strong NE
winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail between the Canary Islands
and offshore Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned large N to NE
swell will continue to produce rough seas across the Atlantic
waters from 40W to coastal Florida and the Bahamas, generally
north of 12N, through Sun night. Seas in excess of 12 ft are
expected north of 20N through midday Sun. Seas will slowly subside
from north to south over the central Atlantic early next week.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary
front, extending from the central Atlantic near 26N55W through the
central Bahamas and Florida Straits, through late Tue before
winds slowly diminish midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave has formed several
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
system, and it could become a tropical depression by the middle to
latter part of next week while moving across the central tropical
Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by Thu.
This system has a medium chance of tropical development within
the next 7 days.

$$
Stripling