869
AXNT20 KNHC 040415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 24N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is affecting the islands.

A tropical wave is along 50W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end
of the wave axis and mainly from 15N to 18N between 46W and 53W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 65W, south of 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. Recent
scatterometer data show the winds shift associated with the wave,
mainly across the northern portion. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N27W to
07N35W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N51W to NE Venezuela
near 09N62W. Convection is limited across the area.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region supporting gentle to
moderate winds, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just
offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula due to the presence of a
trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. A surface trough is analyzed
over Florida and extends from 30N81W to 25N85W. Scattered
thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Convection has flared-up
over the Yucatan peninsula and SE Mexico.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
waters through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with
moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a
diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft
seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E
winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin,
except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are
present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Similar convective
activity is noted over portions of central America.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades
along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over
these waters will briefly diminish this weekend then once again
increase to fresh to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue
across the remainder of the basin during the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak low pressure of 1016 mb is located near 30.5N61W. A surface
trough extends from the low center to near 27N67W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near these features. A 1019 mb high
pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near
30N72W. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds are seen over the waters west of
74W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1024
mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and
away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will approach from the
NW late this weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and
thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area.

$$
GR