805
AXNT20 KNHC 311105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N22W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N40W and
to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the the trough between 20W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern
United States and relatively lower pressure to its south is
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas across the northeast and north-central Gulf. Moderate seas
are with these winds. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data passes
and recent buoy observations show light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Slight seas are elsewhere as well. The Ascat scatterometer data
passes suggest that a trough is along the position from 24N96W to
20N91W. An upper-level shortwave trough acting on present ample
moisture has triggered off scattered moderate convection offshore
Louisiana and northeastern Texas, north of about 26N and west of
90W.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
and moderate seas across the northeast and north-central Gulf
will increase to fresh to strong speeds late tonight and continue
into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Tue night, and move slowly southeastward reaching the east-
central Gulf by Wed night, followed by mostly fresh northwest to
north winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of
America and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over
Colombia supports fresh to strong trades along with seas of
7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, a trough that is
analyzed from 19N80W to 14N82W and to just north of northern
Panama is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of
14N between 79W and the coast of Central America. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 14N to 19N between 78W
and 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N
between 72W and 79W, over the eastern Caribbean from 14N to 16N
between 62W and 67W, and also south of 17N between 67W and 72W.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trades over the central
and eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of
strong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds
and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon through Wed
as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic well to the NE
of the Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from 31N58W to 28N62W and to near
24N71W while high pressure to its northwest builds southward
across the western Atlantic. A warm front is analyzed from
31N51W to 24N47W. A trough is ahead of the frontal boundary from
31N56W to 29N59W. Increasing scattered to numerous moderate
convection is ahead of the boundary reaching to a line from
31N53W to 25N62W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the
frontal boundary to near 45W and north of 29N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are
with these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the area.
Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds are northwest of the front,
except for fresh to strong northwest to north of 30N between the
front and 63W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft northwest of the front, except for
higher seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 30N between the front and 63W.
Over the far eastern part of the basin, a cold front extends from a
1012 mb low that is near 32N24W, south-southwestward to 28N23W and
to near 23N341W, where it becomes stationary to 22N41W, and
dissipating stationary from there to 22N45W. Fresh to near gale
north to northeast winds are west of the front to near 39W and north
of 23N. Seas are 7 to 11 ft with these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean
Spotter buoys in this area. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm east of the front north of 26N, and within 60 nm west
of the frontal boundary north of 27N. High pressure is elsewhere
north of about 19N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W,
the tightening gradient between the boundary and the high pressure
will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with
rough seas, possibly as high as 12 ft, over the waters primarily
north and northeast of the Bahamas into the early part of the
upcoming week. The western Atlantic building high pressure will
nudge the frontal boundary southeastward stalling near 25N Sun and
weakening through Wed.

$$
Aguirre