036
AXNT20 KNHC 031055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident from 06N to 15N and between 21W and 38W.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development
of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend. There is a low
chance of formation within the next 2 days, and a high chance
within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 60 nm of 12N60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues to 14N27W and to 09N46W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N and east of
20W. Similar convection is observed from 05N to 14N and between
38W and 57W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary frontal boundary over the north-central Gulf waters
continues to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially over the eastern Gulf. A weak high
pressure regime persists across the basin, sustaining light to
gentle winds and slight seas. However, mariners can expect
strongest winds and higher seas near the strongest storms.

For the forecast, the front will gradually weaken today, becoming
a frontal trough and likely persisting over the east-central Gulf
through Fri. This system will continue to generate scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the
northern half of the basin. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in
place will maintain gentle to moderate winds with slight to
locally moderate seas through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front north of Cuba continues to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms that are also affecting the NW
Caribbean waters north of 20N. Similar convection is present in
the SW Caribbean. A subtropical ridge north of the islands
supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across
much of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will sustain moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much
of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of
Venezuela through Fri night. In addition, moderate to locally
fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf
of Honduras through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 31N75W
to the NW Bahamas and south Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters east of the front
to 69W and north of Cuba and the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east
of the front to 70W. Farther east, a surface trough along 56W and
NE of the Leeward Islands is interacting with an upper level low
supporting scattered showers. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered south of the
Azores. This ridge sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas over much of the tropical Atlantic.
However, a tighter pressure gradient in the far eastern Atlantic allows
for fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas east of 20W and
north of 18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
persist from the NW Atlantic to the NW Bahamas and south Florida
through at least Fri. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the front supports fresh to locally strong southerly
winds north of 25N and between 70W and 75W. These winds will
persist through late today. Unsettled weather conditions will
continue ahead of the front over the next few days. Stronger winds
and higher seas are likely near the strongest storms. Elsewhere,
the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds
and mostly moderate seas..

$$
Delgado