124
AXNT20 KNHC 082238
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 14.8N 54.7W at 08/2100 UTC
or 530 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 20
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 23 ft (7.0 m). Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm in the E semicircle, and within
75 nm in the W semicircle, Scattered moderate convection is noted
elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 50W and 55W. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected to
continue through Thu. A northwestward motion at a slower forward
speed should begin Thu night, followed by a northward motion
Fri night and Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is
expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands late Thu and Thu night. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane late
this week or this weekend. Swells generated by Jerry are expected
to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thu, then spread
westward toward the Greater Antilles on Fri. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Heavy
rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British
Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thu into Sat
morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Disorganized showers
and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving
westward across the Bay of Campeche. The system is expected to
move inland over Mexico tonight, and therefore its opportunity for
any development will be ending soon. Regardless, areas of heavy
rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico
during the next day or so. Please stay up to date with the latest
forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather
agency.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, from 20N
southward, and moving W at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is
described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 67W, from 21N
southward to across western Puerto Rico nearing the Mona Passage,
and to N-central Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 62W and 68W,
with the wave interacting with an upper level low over the Mona
Passage.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is noted 79W moving into the
western portion of the basin, from 20N southward to just W of
Jamaica and near the N coast of eastern Panama, moving W at around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over portions of
Jamaica and NW of the wave near the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the coast of Africa
at the border of Mauritania and Senegal at 16.5N16.5W, extending
SW to the S of the Cabo Verde Islands at 10N21.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N21.5W to 03.5N43W. A relatively thin band of
scattered moderate convection is displaced somewhat NW of the
axis, NW of the ITCZ between 120 nm and 240 nm.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy
rain across eastern Mexico.

Scattered moderate convection is in the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche offshore Veracruz, Mexico across the waters S of 24N and
W of 93.5W, associated with the above. Fresh to strong winds are
near this convection, along with 5-8 ft seas. A weak trough is
analyzed N of the Yucatan Channel with some isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity. Otherwise a fairly flat and broad
pressure pattern prevails over the remainder of the basin with
moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 3-6 ft seas N of 24.5N, with
gentle to moderate NE-E winds and mainly 2-4 ft seas S of 24.5N
away from the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue
with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of
Campeche. The system is expected to move inland over Mexico
tonight, and therefore its opportunity for any development will be
ending soon. Winds over the SW Gulf continue to strong breeze
with the trough through early this evening. Elsewhere, a building
high pressure north of the Gulf will promote fresh to strong NE
winds over the NE Gulf from Thu night through Fri night. Looking
ahead, winds and seas across the entire Gulf should be quiescent
from Sat to early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm
Jerry in the central tropical Atlantic which may affect the
northern Leeward Islands toward the weekend, and the Tropical
Waves section for details on two waves in the basin.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
Caribbean, with gentle to locally moderate E-SE winds dominating
the waters. Seas are 2-4 ft across the majority of the basin,
except higher in and near Atlantic passages due to both NE and SE
swells. Other than the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted
from near the coast to offshore of NW Venezuela, offshore N
Colombia, and near the coast of Panama due to the eastward
extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Some additional
activity is noted N of the Gulf of Honduras to the E of Belize.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry is near 14.8N 54.7W at 5
PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Jerry will move to 15.9N 57.1W Thu morning,
17.4N 59.7W Thu afternoon just east of the N Leeward Islands,
19.4N 61.6W Fri morning just north of the N Leeward Islands, then
moving away from the Caribbean on Fri and Sat. No significant
winds or seas from Jerry will impact the Caribbean Sea waters,
except for some large NE swell pushing into the Anegada and Mona
Passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N38W to 27N50W to
NE of the Central Bahamas near 26N73W. Very active convection is
associated with this front with scattered showers and
thunderstorms noted on convectional satellite imagery within about
270 nm on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
are noted across the waters N of the front. A ridge extends
across the waters SE of the front and to the N of Jerry from
31N30W to 23N55W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted
right under the ridge. Moderate to fresh NE-E trades extend from
offshore northern Africa to the SE of the ridge across the waters
N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with seas of 7-9 ft, except for
locally strong winds near the N coast of Africa and near the
Canary Islands. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are found across
the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas of 4-7 ft are found
across the remainder of the waters away from Jerry, except 3 ft or
less inside the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry is near 14.8N
54.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Jerry will move to 15.9N 57.1W Thu
morning, 17.4N 59.7W Thu afternoon just east of the N Leeward
Islands, 19.4N 61.6W Fri morning just north of the N Leeward
Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.7N 62.5W Fri afternoon,
24.1N 62.8W Sat morning, and 26.4N 62.5W Sat afternoon. Jerry
will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.6N 61.2W Sun
afternoon southeast of Bermuda.

Looking ahead, an extratropical low pressure system is expected
to develop just offshore of the Florida peninsula Fri night and
move northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds
should occur north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri night
and Sat. West of a developing cold front, fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas may occur north of the NW Bahamas from Fri
night into Sun morning.

$$
Lewitsky