075
AXNT20 KNHC 010528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressure over
NW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough
to very rough seas in the Agadir region from 01/0900 UTC to at
least 02/0000 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic is along 18W,
south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 25W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
throughout the week. This wave has a low chance of tropical
development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7
days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
near this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection is present
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then to
11N32W and to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 15N and
between 25W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Tampa, Florida to the NW Gulf,
followed by a stationary front to the central Texas coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
Gulf waters within 120 nm of the frontal boundary, especially in
the NW and SE Gulf. Strong storms over western Yucatan are moving
into the eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Mariners can expect
hazardous conditions near the strongest storms in the basin. At
the surface, a weak pressure gradient result in light to gentle
winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift southward
into the central Gulf through Mon, then will stall and dissipate
through Tue. The front will be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms into mid week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place
will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms flaring up over the
Cuba and Hispaniola are also affecting the nearshore waters.
Similar storms are impacting Panama and the SW Caribbean waters.
Elsewhere, generally drier conditions are noted. The strong ridge
over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South
America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft. In the
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean south of
Haiti will move westward and reach Jamaica Mon, and the Gulf of
Honduras Tue before moving west of the basin. Elsewhere, Atlantic
high pressure in combination with low pressure over northern
Colombia will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas across much of the central Caribbean through Fri. Locally
strong winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight with moderate to fresh winds
prevailing the remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the Agadir region issued by Meteo-France

A cold front extends from a 1011 low pres near 32N73W to 30N75W,
where it becomes a stationary front to a 1011 mb low pres just off
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture
flowing northward promote scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 70W, also affecting the Bahamas, Cuba and
Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh
to locally near gale-force NE-E winds are occurring north of the
frontal boundary. Moderate to locally rough seas are found in
these waters. A few showers are also evident SE of Bermuda and in
the north-central Atlantic due to a couple of surface troughs in
the area.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong subtropical
ridge just west of Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
are found north of the monsoon trough and east of 50W. Seas in
these waters are 4-8 ft. Strong to near gale-force N-NE winds and
rough seas are occurring east of 20W due to a tighter pressure
gradient near the African continent. ELsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
persist through Thu night. Expect fresh to strong winds with
moderate to rough seas north of the front through Mon night,
and scattered showers and thunderstorms lasting through Thu.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the pattern from the
central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting gentle to
moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

$$
Delgado