661
AXNT20 KNHC 062358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mon Sep 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W south
of 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of
20N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Only isolated showers
are seen near its southern portion from 07N to 09N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W. It is
moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, reaching
southward to central Panama. It is extends from central Cuba
southward into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of
11N west of the wave inland Central America, and also south of
10N east of the wave to the northwest portion of Colombia. This
activity is being further enhanced by the eastern extension of
the East Pacific monsoon trough that crosses the wave axis near
10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16W, and
continues southwestward to 05N32W, then west-northwestward
to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to near 07N55W.
Aside from convection described above under Tropical Waves,
convection remains very limited across the area under a dry and
stable atmospheric environment. At best, only isolated showers
and thunderstorms are present.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A shortwave trough aloft moving through the southeastern U.S. is
working on a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place
over the region. This is resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms over some sections of northern and central Florida,
southern Alabama and Mississippi. A weak trough near the southeastern
Gulf is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of about 25N and east of 92W to near the Florida Keys and
over some sections of the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N87W, is
providing for light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas are over the forecast
waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will
persist across the Gulf basin through the period, supporting
mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over most of the
waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the
western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal
surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds
and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central
Caribbean as highlighted by satellite scatterometer data passes.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends east to
west roughly along 25N to South Florida. The pressure gradient
between this subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over
the south- central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten
starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and
locally near-gale force, with rough seas, Mon through midweek.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of a mid-level trough and ample deep atmospheric
moisture and instability in place is supporting numerous showers
and thunderstorms north of about 23N and west of 72W. Similar
activity to the southeast of a frontal boundary is noted north
of 27N between 56W and 72W. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored
by a 1018 mb high center near 25N54W. The associated gradient is
generally allowing for gentle winds near the high center, as
well as along the ridge extending from the high along 25N. A
stronger high center of 1026 mb is centered north of the area
near 36N21W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong
winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W as depicted in
satellite scatterometer data passes. Elsewhere, moderate winds
prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high center near 25N54W will
gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next
week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will approach the
northern waters tonight, hen stall near 31N through midweek
before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
active across these northern waters west of 65W through Tue.

$$
Aguirre