007
AXNT20 KNHC 231719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 10N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W, and from 07N to 09N
between 45W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W while a frontal
boundary has reached the northern Gulf. The front extends from the
western Florida Panhandle to inland south Texas, where it becomes
a stationary front. Satellite pictures show scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the front over Texas. Under this weather
pattern, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted behind the front.
Mostly light to gentle winds are S of front, except for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east of 94W.
Similar wind seepds are W of 94W.  Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. Patches of fog,
some dense, are along and just offshore the Florida Big Bend coast.
A dense fog advisory is in effect in this area until 4 pm this
afternoon.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift
northeastward as a warm front later today as a low pressure
develops near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh
southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night
supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast
Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will
diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the
coast of Texas. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake
the frontal boundary early Wed while emerging out over the
northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of
the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast
winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the initial frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern
Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of
the central Caribbean as noted in recent scatterometer data. The
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where seas are
in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the basin. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from eastern Honduras to
western Panama. Gusty winds are possible with this activity as it
may linger into late tonight. Abundant tropical moisture in place,
combined with an upper-level low spinning over Nicaragua supports
this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well
into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from
the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and
relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin
through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high
pressure situated just N of the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer
data depict moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N
west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands.
These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the
Straits of Florida. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward
Passage as also seen in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near
31N47W to 20N52W. An upper-level trough is providing upper support
for this feature. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms
remains associated with this trough. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered just E of the Azores and
relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining mostly
fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east of 24W,
including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to
10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on altimeter data.
Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N and E
of the aforementioned trough to about 40W. Moderate to rough seas
are with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades,
with moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-central
Florida will shift southeastward and dissipate through early Mon
in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of
the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W
by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back
north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the
front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh northeast winds and building seas.

$$
GR