441
AXNT20 KNHC 011029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 13 ft extend across the central Atlantic from
18N to 30N, E of 60W. These conditions are being generated by the
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 57W from 11N to 25N. The
highest seas are associated with strong winds in a corridor near
the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between 45W and 57W. The
trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 15 kt and pass north
of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly
through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the
winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft
through today over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W.
Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 06N35W to
06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N
and east of 47W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to
Tamaulipas. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front.
A few showers are evident along and behind the front. A surface
trough remains in place over the central Gulf along 88W from 22N
to 27N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida
panhandle to Tamaulipas, followed by fresh to occasionally strong
N-NE winds and seas to 8 ft. These winds and seas will diminish
later today. Low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary
in the NW Gulf today into tonight before the system lifts quickly
northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally
rough seas behind the boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late
Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into
the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to Tamaulipas Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level
divergence is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms off
Panama and Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4
to 6 ft seas east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to
4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a
bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, but
another ridge will build in soon thereafter. A broad surface trough
is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue westward over
the next few days. Rough seas affecting the water passages of the NE
Caribbean will persist through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front is approaching the waters off NE Florida and a few
showers and thunderstorms are evident ahead of the boundaru.
Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 68W, north of
25N. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the
trough to 62W and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of
26N and also south of 24N and east of 74W.

As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough
extends along 57W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from
the winds and seas described in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front entering the waters off
NE Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward
tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas
north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves
from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these
southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of 28N
ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on
Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile,
strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving
westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands through Tue.
Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.

$$
Delgado