772
AXNT20 KNHC 271711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and
continues to 06N52W near the coast of French Guiana. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 28W and 48W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters
of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Charlotte Harbor, FL, to
near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of both sides of the front. North of the front across the Gulf
waters, N winds are fresh to strong, with building 5-8 ft seas.
Ahead of the front, moderate or weaker NE winds and 3-5 ft seas
are analyzed.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight,
and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will
follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving
Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in
the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next
cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Sat night and meander
slowly southeastward across the NW Gulf Sun through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean currently
supports strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia. Recently received satellite altimeter data
indicates peak seas are to 13 ft. Fresh to strong trades are
evident elsewhere in the central and southwestern Caribbean with
8-13 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are analyzed in the eastern
Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, gentle
to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate
convection is affecting the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, and Panama, from 09N to 14N west of 79W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW
Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the
SW and much of the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela, through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh trades are
forecast elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri morning, followed
by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to stall from
central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually
dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the far NW waters, a cold front extends from 31N76W to
Melbourne, FL. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
both sides of the front. Fresh winds are near the frontal
boundary. A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends
southwestward from 31N38W to 26N50W. Fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft
seas are north of the front. North of Hispaniola and on approach
to the Windward Passage, E winds are pulsing to fresh speeds.
Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the Atlantic waters.
Satellite scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades and
4-7 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
1031 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the
SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 22N and in
the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Fri. The cold front near Florida will move
southeastward and extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits
tonight, from 31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and
then dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce
increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat,
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Mahoney