124
AXNT20 KNHC 302337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34.5W, south of 19N,
moving westward around 5 kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is
occurring near this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is
along 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 22N and west of 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N17W and continues southwestward to 10N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N east of
25W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing S of 11N between 74W and 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is draped across the northeastern Gulf,
producing scattered moderate convection across areas N of 26N
between 90W and 95W. A surface trough is also analyzed from the
central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms occurring near and to the east of the surface
trough. Otherwise at the surface, weak ridging prevails,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sag south
tonight, then meander over the north-central and northeast Gulf
through early next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The stronger thunderstorms will induce locally hazardous
winds and seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
details on convection in the basin.

The subtropical ridge north of the islands continues to sustain
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the
central Caribbean, with locally strong winds just offshore of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, locally fresh E
winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are evident elsewhere in the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving through the Gulf of
Honduras will bring showers and thunderstorms along with locally
strong winds and higher seas to the gulf and adjacent waters of
the NW Caribbean through tonight. Otherwise, Atlantic high
pressure in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia
will maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas
across much of the central Caribbean through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches from 31N68W to NE Florida. This
feature and an upper level trough to the north combine to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms west of 72W and N
of 23N. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are also
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 24N between
55W and 70W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge that maintains generally moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure system between the Azores and Nova Scotia. This ridge
forces moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to
rough seas north of 20N and east of 60W. Strong NE winds and rough
seas are evident off Morocco due to a tighter pressure gradient
in the region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front and
surface trough offshore of Florida are leading to scattered
thunderstorms N of 23N and W of 72W, which will continue through
Mon, as low pressure forms along the front near the Florida coast
and tracks NE to E along it. Behind the low, NE to E winds will
increase to fresh to strong N of the front, mainly N of 29N and W
of 77W Sun night into Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain in
control of the general weather pattern providing for a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
ADAMS