


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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016 AXNT20 KNHC 170948 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Large Swell Event: Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over the Atlantic waters north of the discussion area will support rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic through this weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into the discussion waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The area of 12 ft and greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat, covering the waters north of 27N between 50W and 69W by Sat night. The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters allowing or seas to drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters north of about 30N between 55W and 65W on Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 17N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 36W and 44W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it continues westward. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas along with heavy rainfall and gusty winds with this system. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 49W and 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues to 08N38W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through early next week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. A cold front may reach the northern Gulf waters by Sun nigh and stall over the northern waters early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to the Yucatan Passage. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms along and near this boundary. A weak pressure gradient is across the Caribbean waters supporting gentle to moderate winds E of 64W, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range E of 64W, and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of the north-central waters today. A cold front extends from 26N55W to 23N60W then becomes stationary to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft are N of 21N and E of the front to 45W. A reinforcing front extends from 31N59W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are W of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are between the fronts. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 23N32.5W. Light to gentle winds are around the high center. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will merge and become stationary from 26N55W to the central Bahamas Sat and dissipate through Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the waters east of 60W and N of 25N elsewhere through Sat before winds diminish. The fronts have ushered in northerly swell across the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters E of 60W and over the remainder of the waters N of 25N through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover much of the waters E of 70W by early Sun. Seas will then subside from west to east into early next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters N of 27N and E of 70W today through Sun morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the fronts with improving conditions starting early next week. $$ AL